Early 2016 Oscar Predictions: First Look at Best Supporting Actress

One of the more difficult aspects of making Oscar predictions so early is not only the fact these are primarily all shots in the dark, but there’s also a lack of imagery available as the studios haven’t even scratched the surface when it comes to promotional efforts for several of these films. As such, I don’t even have official, quality imagery for two of my top five contenders in the Best Supporting Actress race. This year, however, does feature a strong field of actresses, making it very tough to nail down any kind of top five I feel overly confident will secure a nomination, though there are a couple I feel have a pretty good shot.

Starting at the top, right out of the gates I’m predicting a Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress win for Todd Haynes‘ Carol. The film stars Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara and while Mara won the Best Actress award at Cannes, it seems The Weinstein Co. has decided they will push Blanchett for Best Actress and Mara in the supporting category. This is all awards season politics, of course, in hopes of securing the most nominations/wins for the film as it seems the consensus is they are more co-leads than anything, but given the heat surrounding her performance at this point it seems most logical to predict Mara as the early season front-runner.

Behind her I have the wonderfully talented Elizabeth Olsen who broke through in 2011 with Martha Marcy May Marlene and this year stars opposite Tom Hiddleston in I Saw the Light as Audrey Mae Williams, first wife of country music icon Hank Williams, Sr.

In third I think it’s about time another woman from a Quentin Tarantino movie gets a nomination, which means it just might be perfect timing for Jennifer Jason Leigh in The Hateful Eight. The only other time an actress has been nominated for a Tarantino film was Uma Thurmam back in 1995 for Pulp Fiction.

When it comes to Meryl Streep it almost seems a foregone conclusion she’ll be in the hunt every year and at this early stage I’m predicting a nom for her supporting work in Suffragette over her chances for a Best Actress nom in Ricki & the Flash, which looks a little too frothy in comparison to the 19th century story of women’s suffrage. Streep always brings her “A” game and it seems this year might find her with her 20th overall nomination, but I’m not counting on a fourth win. Speaking of which, this prediction is a bit against Streep’s history as only four of her 19 previous nominations were for a supporting role. Will this year make it five?

Finally, in the fifth and final position I’m going with Ellen Page in Freeheld as she plays opposite Julianne Moore in what looks like not only a timely story, but one that appears it will be carrying a wealth of emotional heft.

Overall I have 27 contenders so these five are just scratching the surface. I wouldn’t be surprised if Kristen Stewart were to find her name bubbling to the surface with her Cesar-winning performance in Clouds of Sils Maria, you have Kate Winslet (Steve Jobs) to consider and I’m particularly interested in seeing how lard a role Phylicia Rashad plays in Creed as it very easily could be a standout.

As I said, though, there are plenty more contenders to consider so click here for my full field of 27 contenders, but before that here is my ordered top five once again.