We’ve hit the midway point of 2015 so it’s time to start taking the 2016 Oscar race a little more seriously. Cannes is behind us and coming up are the Toronto and Venice Film Festival announcements at which point we’ll see just what kind of strategies the studios will be taking with their upcoming Oscar contenders.
Over the last month or so I’ve been tweaking my Best Picture predictions in the background, adding a movie here and there, shuffling a few around as I see fit to the point I am now at 51 contenders. Yeah, such is the price you pay when you start predicting this early.
However, this year I’m going to set out to keep track of my own personal Oscar ballot as we go through the year, offering up a list of the top five films I believe should be nominated for Best Picture in hopes of maybe keeping the buzz going for titles that don’t necessarily fit the traditional “Oscar movie” description. It also gives me a chance to track only the movies I’ve seen while still predicting those I haven’t.
That said, here’s my mid-year ballot in alphabetical order:
I would include The Duke of Burgundy on that ballot if I knew for sure it was eligible. It did start playing in New York on January 23, but it also hit On Demand at the same time. I’m a little shaky on how that works out with the rules.
There are a few films a lot of people have been talking about for Oscar consideration that I still haven’t seen, chief among them include Love & Mercy and Me and Earl and the Dying Girl, though the latter seems to have come under fire from some critics as of late, which tells me its Oscar prospects are all but done.
A few festival films have also remained on the minds of some, including Cannes stand-out and likely Foreign Language nominee Son of Saul and The Diary of a Teenage Girl, both of which have found a home at Sony Classics.
Paulo Sorrentino‘s Youth is another film that had a strong showing at Cannes along with Carol and Brooklyn, which leads me to my actual predictions.
Of course it’s too early to truly make predictions with any measure of confidence as these are largely based on filmmaker pedigree and a few based on early reviews. For example, it appears Pixar may finally be back in the Best Picture hunt with Inside Out, especially with some critics calling it the best Pixar film yet. Then you get into filmmakers such as Steven Spielberg, Danny Boyle, Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu and David O. Russell and a nomination for their films seem almost inevitable, and that’s before you even consider the fact the casts of those films include Michael Fassbender, Tom Hardy, Leonardo DiCaprio, Jennifer Lawrence and Tom Hanks.
And what about the likes of Todd Haynes and the buzz both Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara received for Carol or the fact Oscar-winning director Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech) is teaming with Oscar winner Eddie Redmayne for The Danish Girl?
That said, here are my current, ordered predictions for Best Picture and you can check out the full field of 51 contenders here.
Current Predictions
- Steve Jobs
- The Revenant
- The Danish Girl
- Carol
- Joy
- Bridge of Spies
- The Walk
- Inside Out
- Brooklyn
Check out the full field of 51 contenders right here.
Beginning next week (or earlier if I can get everything sorted) I will begin opening the doors to predictions for Best Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor and Actress, Adapted and Original Screenplay and more. For now, what do you have to say about the first half of the year so far? What do your ballots look like? What are you predicting for the second half?
Have your say in the comments below.
