Gone Girl heralds the beginning of Oscar season, and hopefully proof adult dramas can still draw at the box office. The rumored budget here is $50 million, pretty efficient, and there’s a lot of value for your money, almost 2.5 hours worth of creepiness. Factor in that sparkly 86 percent RottenTomatoes number and I think you’ve got a film that will draw.
My closest comparison is Captain Phillips, another “serious” movie with a known leading man that came out in October. Thus, my $27 million call. However, if I’ve somehow underestimated the book audience (would they really clamor for this on opening weekend?) or the marketing efforts, well, then this could hit $40 million. I suppose I’m just betting that longish R-rated adult dramas will always be a slow burn at the box office.
Annabelle is the next film on the board, another R-rated effort, this time of the horror variety. Could this do Carrie numbers? Sinister? I say better. I’ve got this one coming in at $24 million, which, given a budget that had to be in single digits, is quite nice. I don’t see much upside here though, there’s only so much money to go around on the opening weekend of October. I haven’t seen any reviews yet, but you might want to at least reference them before making your call. Horrors are semi-immune to bad reviews, but good ones could add some dollars.
Next up, Left Behind. This is the most difficult title on the board, I am quite terrible at judging Christian audience movies. Plus, just to add to the craziness, Nic Cage is in this, and his track record is also spotty. His last big movie was … National Treasure? There’s simply no telling where this will end up, and we’re also looking at limited theater counts. I’ve put it at $8 million, but I truly have no idea. I’d bet under if forced.
Finally, The Equalizer. Also R-Rated! It’s the most wonderful time of the year. I have Denzel’s latest dropping 48 percent, but that number actually represents a nice holdover in this frontloaded marketplace. Will this lead to Denzel’s first sequel? Here’s hoping, I dug this film. $17.8 million is my take, and I’m pretty sure I’m dead on.
Current Record: 44-89-5 against the wisdom of the crowds
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
