Lucy should win the weekend, marking the first time a film helmed by director Luc Besson has captured the top spot since all the way back in 1997 (The Fifth Element). Has any other director gone 17 years between wins? The only thing that could derail it is that R rating. Only four weekends in 2014 have had an R winner — Lone Survivor, 300: Rise of an Empire, Neighbors and 22 Jump Street. Four out of 29, not promising, but the tracking is there, and even though Scarlett Johansson has no actual track record of box office success as the lead, I’m willing to take the plunge and bring it in at $34.9 million.
The other game in town is Hercules. I can’t think of anyone who wants to see this, though clearly MTC tracking doesn’t exclusively poll my pals. I’m going slightly high at $24.5 million, but this one is a mystery. Given the non-success of The Legend of Hercules and Conan, it feels like people don’t care about this sort of film. Brad has been saying, “Yeah, but The Rock!” but not much in recent history suggests he can personally lead an action movie to the promised land. Ensemble, yes. But I’m not willing to stake my fortune on The Scorpion King repeating itself.
And So it Goes is a film I know basically zero about. Looks like a straight “older person” play, and those never really crush it anymore. We old folk are happy sitting in our slippers at home, watching the talkies on plasma TVs. $4.5 million is my call, and I’m not all that excited about it either.
Lastly, I wanted to predict the limbo low massive drop that faces The Purge: Anarchy. It’s always fun to call for a 75 percenter! The first one dropped a healthy 76 percent, the 26th worst drop in cinema history. Can this one outdo it? 80 percent would get it into the top ten of sophomore drops, a lofty goal. I’m calling for 75 percent flat, to $7.5 million. Maybe bid one dollar to win “The Price is Right” game?
That’s all I got for this weekend, how say you?
Current Record: 30-70-5 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Lucy: $33 million
- Hercules: $23 million
- And So it Goes: $4.5 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
