Edge of Tomorrow has two things working for it, and one big one working against it. The bad news is the MTC tracking. It’s low, very low, $23.9 million low. And generally you don’t want to defy tracking like that because the fine folks at MTC have a solid, umm, track record where these things are concerned. So savvy predictors (like us) would be wise to at least consider that number before getting out our own dartboard.
As to the aforementioned factors working for Edge of Tomorrow, I’ll firstly point to that shiny 90 percent RottenTomatoes score. People seem to like this film once they’ve been exposed to it, though RT probably has less effect in the summer, plus people aren’t intaking as much television / Internet to be exposed to the big marketing campaigns that could actually swing them on non-sequel titles.
However, I’ll point to something I just made up called “The Oblivion Rule” as the major reason to believe MTC is off. Way back in April of 2013 the tracking for Oblivion was $26 million, another non-sequel sci-fi Tom Cruise movie. It actually opened at $37 million. Plus, it was not nearly as well reviewed and had an April release date. This gives me some confidence that Edge of Tomorrow is set to moderately over-perform, coming in at $34.5 million.
Then we have the projected tracking winner of the weekend, The Fault in Our Stars. This title has also been well reviewed, and it’s primed to capture date night in a big way. As I haven’t seen it, I don’t have much in the way of comparisons, though the trailers indicate a somewhat sappy love story that’s been done a zillion times (though, to be fair, the source material is adapted from a John Green novel, and he’s a lovely writer). I tried to wedge this into something like a Safe Haven slot, but the tracking number was just too big to justify that sort of negative. I’m going under at $33 million, but that’s mostly due to my big over on Edge of Tomorrow. Last year it only took $34 million to win the weekend (The Purge) so there’s not a whole lot of evidence to suggest anything will rock the box office too hard this weekend.
For the holdover predictions we’ll start with Maleficent. With the ‘A’ Cinemascore, there’s every reason to believe it won’t drop too precipitously, but my reasoning for the 55 percent dip is 1) It’s the summer, massive frontloading and 2) The Fault in our Stars probably carves around 15 percent of the same demographic (based on the marketing of both films, not the actuality). I’ve placed it at $31.3 million, but your experience may vary.
Finally, A Million Ways to Die in the West. This one seems destined to end up a financial loser, there can’t be much in the way of an international audience, and the opening was limbo low. Of course, if we’ve learned from past mistakes it’s that low openers in the summer tend not to bleed as much in the follow-up weekend. Which is why I’ve predicted it at $7.9 million, or a kindly 53 percent drop.
That’s all I’ve got for this weekend, I’ll turn it over to you, predictions away!
Current Record: 22-60-3 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- The Fault in Our Stars: $38.5 million
- Edge of Tomorrow: $23.9 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
