X-Men: Days of Future Past is going to be a big deal. But how big? That’s why we’re here. Remember though, these are just the three-day totals, not including Memorial Day. Let’s start with X-Men: Days of Future Past.
The film should hit like a freight train, especially on the heels of a 94 percent RottenTomatoes score. Add in many folks not having to work on Monday and you’ve got a stronger than normal Sunday take too. But why will this open so much stronger than X-Men: First class? I think because that one looked like it took place completely in the past, whereas this one seems as if it takes place in the present, trying to modify the past. You’ve also got the sequel bump. Add it all up, sprinkle in the tracking, and this is a difficult film to project failure out of. I’m going with a flat $96 million.
Godzilla will face the biggest drop of the weekend, though that’s more of a reflection of the current rules of the box office as opposed to the film itself. Another “fresh” on RT, critics have clearly bought in to the breeziness of the summer. I think a 55 percent dip is in order, down to $41.9 million. Brad mentioned a full-on 51 percent of the tickets were 3-D, so the film received a few extra dollars from higher ticket prices last weekend. Charging less people more, clearly that will work out forever!
Blended has among the most horrid trailers I’ve ever seen, marketing a whole different movie than what actually made it to the screen. Still, it is better than Grown Ups 2, which is a prime example of damning with faint praise. I’m relatively bullish here though, because I think families want to check into the movie theater to check out of their lives for a few hours. $25.4 million is where I see it coming in, or slightly above tracking.
Finally, a limited release makes its way into the arena, I speak of Chef. It’s only in around 500 theaters, but it has a nice niche in a marketplace dominated by genre films. This could be the “adult” choice of the weekend, if consumers can find it. I haven’t seen a smidge of marketing, though perhaps I’m not in the target demo (though I then wonder, who is?). $3.5 million is my call, or prayer, depending how you look at it. It would be pleasant to see a little film that could make its way up the box office over the next few weeks.
That’s all for now. Hope you’re able to enjoy your Memorial Day weekend if you’re here in the States. Predictions away!
Current Record: 18-57-2 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- X-Men: Days of Future Past: $91.3 million
- Blended: $22.5 million
- Chef: $3.0 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
