Captain America: Winter Soldier is going to squeak out a repeat weekend, but the odds are probably only 55 vs 45 percent. No sure things in predicting! I’m forecasting a 53 percent drop, down to $43.6 million. Will it be enough? Your guess is as good as mine, actually better, because you guys have so many more brains.
As for second place, I’m only giving Rio 2 a ten percent sequel bump for a weekend total of $43.9 million. Yup, only $700,000 separates my #1 from #2. Part of my reasoning for the less than stellar bump comes from a 14 percent lower RottenTomatoes score vs. the original, fresh vs. rotten, but school also isn’t out just yet, which will inordinately affect Sunday sales. We could even see a situation where Rio 2 has the lead after Saturday evening and then falters into the silver medal. A genuine horse race, always fun.
Let’s look at Draft Day next. It makes sense they aren’t waiting until May, when the actual draft is, because a movie like this would get destroyed in the competitive May market. Critics have this at 59 percent, which feels about right, it’s a sports film that really isn’t about sports at all (despite the misleading marketing). It’s about, ugh, a romance in the workplace. Dumb. Sports films actually do have a nice pedigree of opening, but they are either comedies (Waterboy) or redemptive (The Blind Side). There isn’t much of a receptive audience here, as it’s a “football” film made for people who don’t know anything about football. I’m pegging it at a mere $10.5 million.
Finally, an unknown quantity, Oculus. It shares a name with an innovative 3-D gaming system, but that’s about where the cool factor ends. I know I’m not the target demo, but I haven’t seen one advertisement, though it was screened for critics (and has actually done quite well). This could be the surprising expectations-beater of the weekend, horror is notoriously fickle. I’m giving it $11 million, but y’all will, of course, go over and beat me by a little. I’m getting used to that action.
Now it’s your turn, a pretty dynamic weekend to project, get in there and mix it up!
Current Record: 11-41-1 against the wisdom of the crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Rio 2: $41 million
- Draft Day: $13.5 million
- Oculus: $11.75 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
