One of the more fascinating pre-Oscar nominations races as far as I’m concerned is the race for Best Actress. It’s more-or-less a foregone conclusion Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine) is going to win, but the nominees aren’t as cut and dry… at least not the final nomination.
Last night Blanchett walked home with a Golden Globe for Best Actress (Drama) alongside Amy Adams who won Best Actress (Musical/Comedy) for her work in American Hustle, beating Meryl Streep (August: Osage County). That is unless you considered Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha) or Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said) serious competition.
So now we come to predicting who will end up celebrating an Oscar nomination in the Best Actress category come Thursday morning and as far as I can tell, Cate Blanchett (Blue Jasmine), Emma Thompson (Saving Mr. Banks), Judi Dench (Philomena) and Sandra Bullock (Gravity) are going to make the grade leaving a battle between two actresses for the fifth and final slot… the two actresses that were “competing” against one another for the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Comedy/Musical — Meryl Streep and Amy Adams.
First, about that win for Adams at the Globes last night, in my Golden Globes vs. Oscars article this morning I looked at the last 29 years of winners at the two award shows so I’ll continue that here, only this time with a new statistic. Over the last 29 years, eight winners in the Best Actress (Comedy/Musical) category have been denied an Oscar nomination. The list looks like this:
- Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)
- Renée Zellweger (Nurse Betty)
- Madonna (Evita)
- Nicole Kidman (To Die For)
- Jamie Lee Curtis (True Lies)
- Miranda Richardson (Enchanted April)
- Kathleen Turner (Prizzi’s Honor)
- Kathleen Turner (Romancing the Stone)
By comparison, it’s only happened twice in the Best Actress (Drama) category, most recently Kate Winslet for her work in Revolutionary Road.
Now if you wanted to look at some other possible qualifiers, Adams was nominated for a BAFTA award while Streep was not, both were nominated by the Broadcast Film Critics Association for a Critics’ Choice Award (though Adams’ nomination was for Best Actress in a Comedy, not just Best Actress), but only Streep was nominated for a Screen Actors Guild Award, an award handed out by the largest branch in the Academy.
If you want more info on the other contenders, Bullock was nominated for a Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA (twice) and SAG award while Dench was nominated for a Golden Globe, BAFTA, BFCA and SAG award as well. As for Blanchett, she got all those as well as a Spirit Award nomination, National Society of Film Critics win and wins with New York and Los Angeles Film Critics.
That said, I offer up the following poll where I ask you to select the five (FIVE!) names you think are the most likely to be nominated for Best Actress. Yes, I understand there are possible contenders other than the six names below, but I’m asking you to choose from this five only, though I certainly welcome your replacement candidates in the comments below.
So, one more time, SELECT FIVE of the names below before submitting your answer and let’s see what the crowd thinks will happen this Thursday and you can check out all of my current predictions right here.
Did you remember to select five? If you can’t count to five, ask a friend. Hopefully someone in your life can count to five. Or, just use your fingers, or even your toes.
