Lone Survivor, combined with Her are the only things saving us this weekend, another in a long line of winter doldrums. As for Lone Survivor, give Mark Wahlberg and Peter Berg credit, they’ve done every talk show available in an effort to market a relatively tough sell. Still, the market’s tolerance for “tough” films is razor thin, and though the trailers have done their best to paint this as a “war” film, I’m not so sure the title doesn’t belie that vision. I’m going under tracking at $18.9 million, I just think it’s too high a marketing mountain to climb.
Next up, Her. This one received Golden Globe nominations in the “comedy” category, very strange, and the marketing has been all about the “fun times!” Are you noticing a theme yet? Hollywood is pumping lies to support good films, painting them as something else altogether, because they’re pretty certain no one actually can handle the complexity of the truth. There’s no doubt we live in weird times for consumers, but I’ve got to go above tracking here because I think love is in the air. $10.2 million is where I come down, but there’s almost no telling with a sci-fi/romance that doesn’t fit neatly into any quantifiable category.
The other new wide release of the weekend isn’t nearly as exciting, The Legend of Hercules looks like a punch to the face. As of this writing, there are zero reviews available, they’re hiding this one like it’s a communicable disease. $11.4 million is the tracking number, I say that’s about right, I’m slightly more bearish at $11 million flat. Hopefully no one sees it with so many better options on the board.
What’s our fourth title? Umm, can I interest you in The Wolf of Wall Street? The only reason I bring it up is that audiences have panned it via CinemaScore, but the film also put up a great holdover number last weekend. That can only mean one thing, interest remains high, potentially diluting negative word-of-mouth. Or, perhaps even more strangely, the CinemaScore reflected how audiences felt about the main character, even though they, wait for it, actually liked the movie. Your guess is as good as mine, but this is a movie that continues to get press, good and bad, which might make it a surprise holdover darling once again. I dinged it 36 percent which is middling the whole exercise, at $8.5 million. Even so, it does look primed to lose money, unless it does well internationally.
Now it’s your turn, with the new year everyone is within striking distance of first place, go out there and grab some scoreboard.
Current Record: 1-3 against the wisdom of the crowds
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Lone Survivor: 22.8
- The Legend of Hercules: 11.4
- Her: 8.0
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
