Frozen should have enough momentum in its sophomore weekend to capture the crown, a rare feat (not winning first weekend, then winning second) made possible by studios largely avoiding the timeframe. I suppose the theory is you’ve doorbusted your little heart out, and thus don’t have money left over for movie tickets. For proof of concept, last year the top twelve at the box office went from $200.4 million all the way down to $106 million. Gulp. Still, Frozen, with that sparkly A+ CinemaScore, is well positioned to rake in the dollars that are out there, so I’m calling for a modest 44 percent dip to $37.7 million.
This means The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will not be earning the coveted three-peat. Thus, unless The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug can do it next weekend, only Gravity will have won thrice for the entirety of 2013. Now then, I’ve got the Katniss special coming in at $34.1 million, so there is a little wiggle room if folks want to call for the slight upset.
Out of the Furnace is mostly doomed, low tracking, little awareness, and a plot that only appeals to those looking for a dark time. Not many people are going for that after the gravy hangover, so $5 million is about the best Christian Bale and company can hope for. Even that is over tracking.
Lastly, let’s take a look at Homefront. Uh, why Homefront? Because there’s not much else to look at unless you want to debate Inside Llewyn Davis limited release numbers in the comments.
Although it received an “okay” B CinemaScore, I’ve got it as the biggest drop-off of the weekend, around 56 percent. What’s my reasoning? No built-in audience, not much buzz, and a new release attacking the same demo. My prediction is $3 million, but clearly it’s going to be a razor-thin margin either way you go on this title.
Speaking of going, that’s it from sunny Seattle, now it’s time for you to get your predictions in. Get in there and mix it up, make us all proud.
Current Record: 32-56-4 against the wisdom of crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Out of the Furnace: $4 Million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
