Oscar Predictions Update: Best Actor Brings a Lot to Consider

August 20, 2013

By Brad Brevet

The number of scenarios to consider when looking at the Best Actor field are countless. You have Leonardo DiCaprio in yet another Martin Scorsese film looking for his fourth Oscar nomination. If he gets it, will he win?

We talk about how the Academy skews more toward the older white male demographic, which would seem to suggest good things for Robert Redford (All is Lost) and Bruce Dern (Nebraska).

We have probably the strongest field of black actors we’ve ever seen with Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) and Michael B. Jordan (Fruitvale Station).

Then there’s up-and-comer Matthew McConaughey (Dallas Buyers Club), whom everyone thought deserved more attention for his role in Magic Mike and has been earning kudos for Mud since last year’s Cannes Film Festival. Add to that the consistency of Tom Hanks who’s starring in Captain Phillips for Paul Greengrass, a film based on a true story and we all know how much the Academy loves true stories and you have a list of eight names before you even begin considering Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis), Christian Bale (American Hustle), Ben Stiller (The Secret Life of Walter Mitty) and Idris Elba (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom) and I have 22 more contenders after that!

Obviously it’s just too early in the game to really get a handle on what will happen, but that’s all part of the fun in looking forward to and anticipating the large crop of films on the horizon.

If I was making a list of the lead performances I felt were the best of the year so far based on what I’ve seen the top five would probably be Isaac, Jordan, Redford, Tye Sheridan (Mud) and Whitaker, which is to say I have a lot left to see and even more has been added to the chart this time around.

With Bennett Miller‘s Foxcatcher getting an official release date I’ve also added Channing Tatum to the list of lead actors and there seems to be some question as to where everyone will fall from that production with Steve Carell is also among my lead candidates, but he very well may go supporting with Mark Ruffalo.

I’ve also added Gattlin Griffith to the list for his role in Jason Reitman‘s Labor Day, which will screen in Toronto. Griffith was the only good thing about Clint Eastwood‘s Changeling and if he is given enough to chew on here he very well may prove to be a contender.

For now, however, my predictions are a mixed bag of “what’s most likely” based on what’s been seen and Oscar history. Have a look at my current top five directly below and you can view the complete field of 34 contenders right here.