As a sequel, Kick-Ass 2 has a clear edge this weekend, especially as it’s coming off a well-received opening film. The bad news? It’s reportedly not very good, which could take a toll by Sunday. The first film eked out almost $100 million on a $30 million production budget, which means it made a slight profit, but this one will have a tougher time if it opens at the $22.4 million I’m calling for. Sure, Kick-Ass opened under that number, but less legs seem inevitable, right? Right.
In second place, but with a legitimate shot at first, comes Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Brad, with his B+, clearly liked it more than myself. The MTC tracking has it losing by $6 million, but tracking always underestimates movies with minority demographic reach. I think this could be really close, and I’m putting The Butler at an even $20 million. There’s probably some wiggle room to go higher, but I don’t see much downside.
Next up, Paranoia. No one knows much about this movie, as they didn’t screen it for critics (at least not in Seattle), but we can surmise it’s bad as three out of the first four reviews have been negative. Harrison Ford has missed more than he’s hit at the box office over the last five years, so I don’t even have this one coming in at double digits with $9.6 million.
Lastly, JOBS hits theaters with a couple thousand theaters. Open Road Films has been advertising this in a big way, which makes perfect sense because the production budget was a minuscule $8.5 million. Opening weekend could be huge for them, but here’s another case of a bad film trying to lure you in. I’d actually recommend you see this one, if only because it has the worst ending of the weekend. I can’t go any higher than $7.5 million, and I’m still trying to figure out who the intended audience for this film is.
Current Record: 8-23-1 against the wisdom of crowds.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
- Kick-Ass 2: $26.2 million
- The Butler: $20.5 million
- Paranoia: $5.1 million
- Jobs: $9.4 million
How say you? It’s still extremely close on the leaderboard, one solid weekend could leave you bathing in box-office glory.
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
