42 is primed to strike a victory for quality this weekend, though there are plenty of variables that could give Scary Movie 5 a sneaky win. Let’s break it down!
Finding a comparable for 42 isn’t an easy task. Is it Cinderella Man, Glory Road or The Blind Side? You’ve got openings in the neighborhood of $18 million, $13 million and $34 million, which is to say the results are far from conclusive.
The reviews have been mostly positive, and a baseball movie is well-timed, plus we’re still in the residual spring break time period. There aren’t bankable stars involved (unless you want to argue Harrison Ford, in which case I’d throw Firewall and Morning Glory your way) and it is spotting Scary Movie 5 somewhere around 100 theaters. I’m predicting $29 million and a first place victory, but…
Another scary factor in trying to call this weekend is I’m also trying to hit the exact moment the public sours on the Scary Movie franchise. Historical trends suggest I’m way low given Scary Movie 3 and Scary Movie 4 both opened above $40 million, which is a lot of money, more than enough to win this weekend. So what gives with the tracking? Could the audience that sees Scary Movie 5 be the precise audience that tracking misses (younger non-poll participating folks)? I went with my gut and a $21.4 million prediction, but there are times my intuition fails me, and the streak could very well crash and burn this weekend. After all, Lindsay Lohan cried on David Letterman… that’s gotta mean points… right?
How about you? Can you find logic where the facts are disparate and occasionally in opposition? Tread carefully, but predictions away!
Current Streak: Nine weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Fifty percent.
Reason: If you like the historical performance of Scary Movies you’ll take it to win. If you see a decent film beating a (likely) terrible one, you’d have to like 42. If you’re a fan of tracking, go with Jackie Robinson’s story. Or you could just flip a coin.
Major Theater Chain (RS) Tracking
42: $25 million
Scary Movie 5: $22 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
