Evil Dead seems primed for a A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010)-like run. Indeed, horror remakes have always performed fairly well, over 30 of them have opened to double digits. The budget is an estimated $14 million, so my predicted $32.5 million debut would be excellent news for Sony Pictures Entertainment.
The absolute low for Evil Dead is something in the teens, but the ceiling is a hefty $40 million haul. It doesn’t have huge names, it doesn’t have a well-established director, but it does have a built-in audience. Good luck to all those films trying to knock it off this weekend, they’re going to need it.
Vying for the silver medal will be Jurrasic Park 3D. I’ll be the first to admit that I don’t get why people buy tickets to 3D conversions, but it’s easy to see that they do, especially if the film is built upon fun and nostalgia. One sober note? Top Gun 3D only managed $3 million during its run, but then again it only had 300 theaters at its widest release point. So I’m bullish with my $17.2 million call, though of course this film could easily slip down the board for any number of variables.
A movie that is destined to plummet? Look no further than G.I. Joe: Retaliation. The first edition fell 60 percent, and I’ve had more than one person call me this week to ask what went wrong with the sequel. Heck, $16.9 million might be too kind, Paramount is still entirely dependent on the might of the international market for any shot at success. They’ve now likely burned the domestic market with another stinker.
Not too much else happening this weekend, basketball and baseball will draw a few dollars away, and we’re at the tail end of the “lull” before the massive titles enter the arena. Still, two new releases to weigh in on, and both are tough calls. But that’s why you get paid the big bucks, predictions away!
Current Streak: Eight weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Ten percent.
Reason: There’s a puncher’s chance audiences want to see a fondly-remembered 3D movie more than a horror remake. But I seriously doubt it.
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
Evil Dead: $25 million
Jurassic Park 3D: $16 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
