G.I. Joe: Retaliation has already ended any intrigue this weekend might have offered at the top slot with a $40 million tracking figure. I’m a little more positive at $42 million because I think the market is starved for action films, look no further than last weekend’s Olympus Has Fallen performance. The new Joe is the perfect film for teen boys to end (or start) their spring break off and the PG-13 rating is optimal for parental approval.
In terms of quality, both films in the G.I. Joe franchise have 34 percent RottenTomatoes scores. That is not high, though the second one is slightly better, if only because they didn’t so actively try to make a terrible film. But let’s all pause to admit that quality doesn’t matter to ticket-buyers on a film like this, studios have won the hearts and minds of consumers with their relentless “check your brain at the door!” mantra. Six million people will do so this weekend.
History suggests The Croods will have a strong sophomore weekend, plus the movie is performing at better than a 1x multiplier overseas, a very positive trend for Fox and I’m looking at another $30.5 million added to its cume this weekend.
There are a couple of other new releases to discuss, but neither should mount a serious charge for the silver medal. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor feels destined to outperform the tracking, if only because all of Tyler Perry’s movies open above $20 million. Okay, okay, only 75 percent have opened above that number, but if you sum the average it’s well north of $20 million. Fun with numbers! I feel really good about my $22 million call and see only upward momentum. It’s a massively under-served market, as is often mentioned in this column.
Then we’ve got The Host to consider. They’ve taken a really interesting premise and ruined it with melodrama. This film will have nothing to offer the teen boys who will gratefully choose G.I. Joe: Retaliation instead, and it also has no prayer of capturing the Twilight audience that loves R-Patz but hasn’t shown the slightest bit of downstream revenue potential. This is a romance novel masquerading as a sci-fi thriller, I have a feeling audiences will punish it for the expectations gap throughout the weekend. Sure, it could hit $20 million, but I’m sticking with $12 million
Not too much else to consider this weekend, though it’s always pleasant to have three titles on the board to predict. I leave you to it!
Current Streak: Seven weekends in a row.
Chances of Streak Being Broken: Zero percent.
Reason: G.I. Joe: Retaliation is set up well for the easy victory. 3-D for life!
Major Theater Chain (MTC) Tracking
G.I. Joe: Retaliation: $40 million
Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor: $18 million
The Host: $15 million
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
