2013 Oscars: Post Nominations Predictions and Floating Five Possible Scenarios

The coming weeks will tell us a lot about what to expect when it comes to the 2013 Oscar Awards as there are certainly several possibilities one could float, but in order to get to the end we must start somewhere so after this morning’s announcement of the 2013 Oscar nominations, I have updated my entire batch of Oscar predictions.

I am currently considering possible scenarios as to how this all could play out. The word “surprised” never really seems to fit with the Oscar nominations because, really, nothing should surprise us about the Academy when it comes to their selections. Yet, this morning did offer some seriously interesting choices that open up the race for a few, very likely scenarios.

The first two scenarios have Lincoln winning, but winning in different ways, the second two offer up a couple of scenarios recent history have told us are not so far fetched.

Five Possible Scenarios

1.) One Film Rules Them All: This year the likeliest film to dominate at this early stage is Lincoln, but even at this early stage I have on the topline in only five categories.

2.) A Mixed Bag of Winners: Over the course of the last few years the films to win the most Oscars won somewhere around four or five. Slumbdog Millionaire won 8 and The Hurt Locker won 6, but for the most part things seem to be spread out pretty evenly.

3.) The 1999 Scenario: In 1999 the presumptive favorite was Saving Private Ryan then the Weinstein Machine went to work and Shakespeare in Love took home seven Oscars including Picture, Actress, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay. The rom-com beat the serious drama directed by Steven Spielberg. This year, Silver Linings Playbook is in the same position along with becoming the 14th film ever to be nominated in all four acting categories, the first time it’s happened since Reds in 1981.

4.) The 2006 Scenario: This is the idea I floated this morning in thinking perhaps the Academy believes it’s time to make up for awarding Crash the Best Picture trophy over Ang Lee’s Brokeback Mountain. That year Lee’s film was the presumptive favorite only to lose at the final bell. Lee won Best Director, but maybe Life of Pi will get him that Picture statue.

5.) None of the Above: I only added this because people like lists divisible by five.

Which scenario do you see as most likely? My money, at this point, is on Scenario #2. I’ve got Lincoln taking Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actor, Director and Screenplay while Life of Pi wins four technical awards including Score and the rest of the categories are scattered among the other nominees.

Of course, several of these categories could change over the coming weeks as the Awards Schedule boasts plenty of events taking place, such as the Critic’s Choice Awards tonight, the 2013 Golden Globes this Sunday, the Producers Guild Awards next Saturday and the 2013 Screen Actors Guild Awards next Sunday.

The race is far from over, but like I said, we have to start somewhere. Below is my first stab at the predictions following today’s nominations… Who do you got?

Best Picture

I can’t go against Lincoln unless the precursor awards suggest there is a shift in the winds.

Best Actor

I think it’s worth pointing out that if Daniel Day-Lewis wins it will be the first time an actor directed by Steven Spielberg has won an Oscar. In fact, I have Tommy Lee Jones on the topline for Supporting Actor as well. It’s a crazy stat to think of considering Spielberg’s past work, but that stat is likely to be put to bed this year.

Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln)
Hugh Jackman (Les MisÃ©rables)
Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Denzel Washington (Flight)
Joaquin Phoenix (The Master)

Best Actress

I had Lawrence on the topline pre-nominations and she’s staying there now.

Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook)
Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty)
Emmanuelle Riva (Amour)
Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Best Supporting Actor

This is a tough one, the love for Silver Linings suggests De Niro may need to prepare for his third Oscar speech.

Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln)
Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook)
Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master)
Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained)
Alan Arkin (Argo)

Best Supporting Actress

Hathaway and Day-Lewis are both locked.

Sally Field (Lincoln)
Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)
Amy Adams (The Master)

Best Director

Again, pay close attention to the awards race winds.

Steven Spielberg (Lincoln)
Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Michael Haneke (Amour)
Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Writing (Adapted Screenplay)

I feel confident in a win for Kushner here. It’s still early and there is always time for change, but I don’t imagine changing this one.

Tony Kushner (Lincoln)
David Magee (Life of Pi)
David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook)
Lucy Alibar and Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Chris Terrio (Argo)

Writing (Original Screenplay)

Tough call, both Tarantino and Boal have won screenplay Oscars and recently on Howard Stern, Tarantino commented on losing to Boal in 2010. Instead of being upset about losing Best Director to Kathryn Bigelow he said (while laughing), “I was pissed I didn’t win Best Screenplay… It was Kathryn’s year, it wasn’t fucking Mark’s year.” The two do battle again!