Outsiders & Unseen
There are some outsiders such as The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, which is looking like a stronger acting contender than Best Picture, and another foreign language film in Rust and Bone, which boasts two great performances just as Amour.
This leaves the films that have yet to be seen by the majority. These include Lincoln, Zero Dark Thirty, Django Unchained, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Les Miserables and Life of Pi. I also think Flight could surprise us and I’m curious as to what David Chase‘s Not Fade Away will do. I know the Weinsteins keep shuffling Killing Them Softly around the board for the “best” Oscar positioning, but unfortunately I don’t think that film will make much of a dent, no matter how much I hope it actually does.
We should be hearing a lot more about Not Fade Away, Flight and Life of Pi very soon as all three play the New York Film Festival at the end of September and through mid-October. I’ve also heard Lincoln will begin screening in-and-around Los Angeles at the end of September.
Current Best Picture Predictions
I will begin my official Oscar Predictions next Monday, September 24, but for now here’s how I see the Best Picture race shaping out:
- Silver Linings Playbook
- Argo
- Les Miserables
- The Master
- The Sessions
- Life of Pi
- Anna Karenina
- Beasts of the Southern Wild
- Lincoln
- Amour
——— BUBBLE LINE ———
Considering the nominations can be anywhere from 5-10 nominees, I’m currently thinking the cut-off line is at about six or seven, which puts Anna Karenina right on that bubble line for now. I think Les Miserables and Lincoln will be fighting it out for spots once they’ve been seen and it’s a tough call for me between The Sessions and Beasts of the Southern Wild, one is much lighter in tone than the other, which is a gritty and uplifting independent piece.
So with that I now leave it to you. I am still moving and shuffling some pieces around the board, so who do you see as the likely Best Picture contenders at this point? Anything I’m missing or not giving enough credit? What films am I giving too much credit to? Speak up in the comments below and stay tuned as we are just getting started.
