Dismal. That’s the word for this weekend’s box office outlook, a land where you, me, and a handycam could probably take one of the top three slots. Still, there are films to talk about and numbers to project as I go for 11 straight weekends picking the number one film at the box-office. Let’s break it down!
In the first slot, you’ve got to like The Expendables 2. I see it pulling in $13.3 million this weekend, falling nearly 54 percent. In the land of the blind the one-eyed man is king – and superior theater counts and demographic reach should carry the weekend.
If you were looking for an upset, you’d have to put your chips on Hit and Run, which I have coming in with $10 million, though it looks like it will be spotting The Expendables 2 500 theaters along with a commensurate amount of marketing dollars.
The outlook is not as rosy for Premium Rush, though it likely will end up with the largest per theater average of the weekend. If Sony had figured a way to scam Joseph Gordon-Levitt and his bike into 3,000 theaters they would have had better than even odds, but at an estimated 2,100 locations it’s going to be tough.
Here’s the real issue this weekend – the entire top five is all fighting for the same young male dollar. The Expendables 2 likely scales slightly older, which will help it edge out the rest of the crowd. Counter-programming? Never heard of it, as The Apparition won’t even hit 1,000 theaters, and thus will likely miss out on the top ten entirely. Likewise, 2016 Obama will have a tough time factoring into the equation due to limited theater counts and the general public’s general distaste for political films. If these numbers hold, it will be the worst box office weekend since December 9-11 of 2011, back when New Year’s Eve was winning the weekend … and the scorn of critics everywhere.
How say you?
Want to toss out a premium number on Premium Rush? I was a fan of Hit and Run, so I certainly wouldn’t be upset to see it ruin my double-digit streak. The Apparition and 2016 Obama are eligible to be predicted, though I have them finishing eleventh and twelfth. I turn it over to you dear reader, predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
