Box-Office Predictions: 'The Dark Knight Rises' Looks to Stay On Top for Second Weekend Straight

The tragedy of Aurora far outweighed the significance of any box office news from last weekend, and it’s almost impossible to say what the effect will be going forward. Our thoughts have been with the victims all week. Still, Box Office Oracle is all about measurement, and measure we must, starting with …

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 6 Weeks In A Row

The Dark Knight Rises

Clearly, films are becoming more and more front-loaded as DVD windows and theatrical runs decrease. But is Dark Knight Rises closer to the sequel or the 2005 film? Batman Begins fell only 43 percent on its sophomore weekend, whereas The Dark Knight‘s number was closer to 53 percent. Do you split the difference and call this weekend at 48 percent?

Spoiler alert, I don’t. I think a number nearing 52 percent is entirely likely based on a few conflicting factors. Firstly, the film was not as well received as The Dark Knight, so word of mouth will be slightly off. So you’d look at 55-57 percent dip based on that factor. Then you note front-loading speeds up just a bit each year and surmise a 60 percent drop isn’t out of the question.

But a third huge outlier, the Aurora shootings, leads me to believe that at least six to ten percent of the audience stayed home last weekend. And those folks will rally. Of course, this theory is completely of the instinctual variety, with nothing except anecdotal evidence to back it up.

Prediction: $78 million

2. The Watch

Tracking is in the high teens, which means I’m really bullish on The Watch. Why? American needs an escape, and I think this is a film that conveys laughter in a totally ridiculous manner. I liked it, and I think a few others might too.

Prediction: $25 million

3. Step Up Revolution

The fourth Step Up, unfortunately, will not be getting the same pass. The franchise seems to be on a downward spiral, completely lacking in plot development, though the dancing is solid.

Prediction: $10.4 million

4. Ice Age: Continental Drift

Half a billion dollars worldwide. That’s the story here, the domestic numbers matter not a whit.

Prediction: $9.8 million

5. Ted

$223m worldwide on a budget of $50m. Nice. It only trails The Chipmunks, King Kong, and Avatar on the “CGI Star” box office rankings.

Prediction: $4.7 million

6. The Amazing Spider-Man

This fell nearly 70 percent last weekend, a clear sign that The Dark Knight Rises owned the demo.

Prediction: $3.9 million

7. Brave

Looks as though it will pass WALL-E for 8th place on Pixar’s domestic list … which is terrible given their respective accomplishments as films. Ah, well.

Prediction: $2.7 million

8. Magic Mike

As long as they don’t make the sequel in 3-D, I’m in.

Prediction: $1.8 million

9. Savages

Oliver Stone can probably still pick and choose his projects, there’s a whole group of superfan financiers that grew up on his previous works.

Prediction: $1.2 million

10. Moonrise Kingdom

Starting to feel like a sneaky Best Picture Nominee, isn’t it? Focus has officially done a nice job of letting it hang around for two months.

Prediction: $1 million

How say you? Predictions on Dark Knight Rises, The Watch, and Step Up Revolution will be considered, let’s do this!

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