Box-Office Predictions: 'Spider-Man' Targets an Amazing Opening Weekend

We’ve got another lay-up at the top, but there’s some drama to be found in the closing number. Other items of note: How exactly will Oliver Stone’s new film and that Katy Perry docu perform? Let’s break it down!

Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row

The Amazing Spider-Man

It’s already crossed $60m domestically, which I think takes the “pent-up demand” power away from the weekend. Spider-Man 3 made $151m on its opening weekend back in 2007, but it didn’t have two days of folks lining up to see it prior to the weekend.

From a critical perspective, here’s what’s strange about The Amazing Spider-Man: it’s clearly better than Spider-Man 3 – but that film was really terrible. It’s getting plenty of nice soft passes from critics — 72 percent on RT — but it feels as though the general public may not fawn over it after the far superior Avengers film. If you’re keeping track at home, Brad and I weren’t big fans.

So I can’t go much higher than $15k per theater here. There’s just not enough film underneath it, and not enough time has passed since Raimi’s trilogy ended.

Prediction: $67.7 million

2. Ted

I like the chances of a solid holdover based on the CinemaScore. A 35 percent dip would be a huge win given the production budget was $50m.

Prediction: $35.5 million

3. Magic Mike

Steven Soderbergh can now walk into any office in Hollywood, ask for the $7m it took to make Magic Mike, and be pretty much guaranteed of leaving with a check. This will hit a 10x multiplier with ease.

Prediction: $23.3 million

4. Brave

It’s all going to come down to the international results, as $200m domestically on a production budget of $185m feels pretty likely.

Prediction: $20 million

5. Katy Perry: Part of Me

There’s not much precedent here (Miley?) – but I did see an ad for it on “The Today Show”. So they clearly know their demo. I also like they tease the content right there in the title. Part of Katy? But which part??!! Gotta see the film to find out.

Prediction: $16.4 million

6. Tyler Perry’s Madea’s Witness Protection

It will face a steep drop-off, but it’s still all gravy from here on out.

Prediction: $11.4 million

7. Savages

Stepping into that “R-Rated drama in July” ring is not the place you want to be. Especially if you’re not already an established franchise or a film featuring Channing Tatum with his shirt off.

Prediction: $10.5 million

8. Madagascar 3: Europe’s Most Wanted

It will hit a 3x multiplier this weekend, pretty much guaranteeing us a fourth one.

Prediction: $6 million

9. Moonrise Kingdom

Is there a record for most times in the top 15 without cracking the top 5? Because Moonrise Kingdom seems destined to crush it.

Prediction: $4.4 million

10. To Rome with Love

Woody Allen in the house! See? You stick around this Oracle column long enough and you get a little surprise at the bottom.

Prediction: $2.7 million

How say you? Am I light on The Amazing Spider-Man? Want to agree to disagree on Katy Perry: Part of Me? And where do you come down on Oliver Stone and Woody Allen’s chances at the box office? Predictions away!

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