2012 Oscar Predictions: Costume Designers Make It Easier to Vote Against 'Hugo' and 'The Artist'

Would you look at that, I was waiting for the Costume Designers Guild (CDG) to announce their winners because I thought it would help me in deciding whether I wanted to predict Hugo or The Artist would win the Oscar for Best Costume Design. But I was so caught up in the battle among the front-runners that I overlooked the fact the craft awards don’t always go to the favorites and the CDG now gives us good reason to go against the tide.

Even when Madonna’s latest directorial effort was The Help.

In the fantasy category Jany Temime won for Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 and in the contemporary category Trish Summerville won for her work on David Fincher’s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo. Of course, neither was nominated for the Oscar so we turn back again to the period options and unless you’re living on the edge I’m going to just place Anonymous in the “it’s an honor to be nominated” category and look at the other four.

If you’re wondering how often the winner from the CDGs matches the eventual Oscar winner, over the last three years the winners have found a match and if you look back at 2009 when The Duchess won the Oscar it is very much like this year in that four of the five Oscar nominees were in the Period category at the CDGs, of which The Duchess also won.

Go back a little further and four out of the last six CDG winners have won the Oscar. After that it gets a bit trickier as the period and fantasy categories used to make up one category. Here, I’ve broken down each year the CDGs have been handed out and I’m pretty sure you’ll notice a growing trend:

1999 – 2 nominees matched the Oscar nominees, but the Oscar winner did not win
2000 – 2 nominees matched, but the Oscar winner did not win
2001 – 2 nominees matched, but the Oscar winner did not win
2002 – 1 nominee matched and it was not the eventual Oscar winner
2003 – 2 nominees matched, but the Oscar winner did not win
2004 – 3 nominees matched, and the eventual Oscar winner won
2005 – 3 nominees matched, but the Oscar winner did not win
2006 – 3 nominees matched and the eventual Oscar winner won. This was the first year the period and fantasy categories were split.
2007 – All 5 nominees matched, but the Oscar winner did not win
2008 – 4 nominees matched, but the Oscar winner did not win
2009 – 4 nominees matched, and the eventual Oscar winner won
2010 – 4 nominees matched, and the eventual Oscar winner won
2011 – 4 nominees matched, and the eventual Oscar winner won

Hmm, this year four of the nominees match the CDG nominees and if history has a habit of repeating itself you may want to move W.E. a little higher on your prediction ballots.

Looking at my Oscar predictions before writing this up I had Hugo on the top line followed by The Artist, then Jane Eyre and W.E. in the fourth slot. With tonight’s results you better believe I am reconsidering my pick and at the moment am 90% positive you’ll see W.E. on my top line tomorrow when I post my final Oscar predictions.

Is it a radical, knee-jerk reaction? Perhaps, but for me, this is what now makes the Oscars fun. It doesn’t really matter to me which film wins any of the awards, but I am too competitive to not want to get as many predictions right as possible.

So stay tuned for my final predictions tomorrow and be sure and join us this Sunday for our live blog of the Oscars. It should be a good time.

And now here are tonight’s CDG winners as well as the other nominees.

Excellence in Period Film: