Box-Office Oracle: ‘New Year’s Eve’ Will Win the Weekend, but Don’t Expect ‘Valentine’s Day’ Dollars
By
Laremy Legel
I don’t think anyone can force me to talk about New Year’s Eve, can they? (Checks contract) Whew, I’m good, which saves me from filing a hostile work environment claim. Brad dodged a bullet there. Which brings us to the second weekend of December, where art house and mainstream collide. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
77 stars. 17 plotlines. 12 actual “jokes”. Ladies and gentleman, I give you New Year’s Eve!
When we look to predict where the non-sequel will end up we start with Valentine’s Day, which opened with a blistering $56m, over $15k per theater. This film will not be making those kind of dollars, partly due to time of year, possibly due to fatigue with the franchise (which bled 70 percent in its second weekend). The tracking is $25m – $30m, which feels right, except for the fact that this does appeal to a massively underserved demo (women).
Love Actually seems an apt comparison, as it hit $7,300 per once it hit 1,000 theaters in mid-November. The differences between the two films? I loved Love Actually, and we’ve got to factor in for inflation.
One chilling note, the last “true” rom-com to win in December was Maid in Manhattan back in 2002. No, I don’t count Fockers. Enough stalling, I’m going with $8,500 per theater, for better or worse.
Underrated, in that I don’t think anyone is rating it at all. Penciling in $12.4m, though I haven’t seen accurate theater counts yet. But know this: I laughed when I saw it.
