Another easy breezy call at the top, with the feline family film poised to dominate. Still, questions remain, intrigue can be found, and we owe it to ourselves to break this thing down. Ready? Let’s hit it!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row
Puss in Boots
Clearly, numbers around the Shrek openings are germane to this conversation. The big green ogre has opened at $12k, 26k, 30k, and $16k per theater, respectively. The progression of the franchise (now downward) is also apparent, but it’s also important to note where the series started out.
So $12k per theater is where I like this one, even with the 3-D and IMAX boost. It’s getting healthy reviews, plus Brad liked it, which augers well, but parentals wade into new franchises tentatively. The holdover potential is there though, as is the sequel opportunity. You could go as high as $60m if you were feeling bullish, and I don’t see much slippage toward the $30s. There you have it.
Prediction: $45.6 million
It’s looking at a very steep dip this weekend. Part of that is horror, part of of it is how high it opened. Oddly enough I found a site (boxoffice.com) where they list something called “Total Budget”. Does that mean they spent around $30m on marketing? Feels about right, and of course it is all gravy money from here on out.
Prediction: $19.46 million
3. In Time
Andrew Niccol’s previous preachy effort, Lord of War, opened at $3300 per theater. Let’s throw in another $1200 for the “Timberlake” bump. After that, look for this one to sink like a stone.
Prediction: $13.5 million
4. Real Steel
It’s performing well, but that triple digit production budget looms.
Prediction: $7.63 million
5. Footloose
The production budget is listed at $8m, but the “total” budget is listed at $58m. Could they have possibly spent $50m advertising this turkey? Am I just watching the wrong channels?
Prediction: $7.5 million
The two most important writers of the last 50 years, Kurt Vonnegut and Hunter S. Thompson, can’t catch a break where “financially viable” adaptations of their work are concerned. Perhaps it’s for the best.
Prediction: $6.9 million
Much like Baxter in Anchorman, I can’t be angry at Three Musketeers. If anything, I’m impressed they got such a massive budget for a product that was clearly DOA.
Prediction: $4.05 million
9. Moneyball
If studios are going to throw money away, it’s preferable that they do it on projects like this. Well, for my personal enjoyment, at least.
Prediction: $3.2 million
10. Dolphin Tale
Good reviews, decent box office, prosthetic innovations, this could have gone much worse.
Prediction: $2.7 million
How say you? Three new releases to weigh in on, plus PA3‘s dip if you’re feeling particularly ambitious. Predictions away!
