With a look at early Friday estimates the number one spot at the weekend box-office is up for grabs as four films are within $0.7 million of one another. Sony’s Moneyball ($3.9 million) takes the early weekend lead followed closely by Dolphin Tale ($3.5 million), The Lion King in 3D ($3.3 million) and Courageous ($3.1 million).
Looking at it right now I’d say it’s between Moneyball and Dolphin Tale, though I won’t be surprised in the least if Lion King roars into the lead by day three.
When it comes to Courageous, it will be interesting to see how it finishes considering there’s likely to be several church groups mass purchasing tickets for weekend screenings. Considering the Christian targeted feature is in 2,400 fewer theaters than the weekend’s theater leader, Dolphin Tale, it’s safe to say it’s off to an excellent start, but things have already slowed on that front after even earlier estimates had it finishing Friday around $5 million.
Dolphin Tale is the weekend’s leader when it comes to number of theaters, with almost 600 more than Moneyball, not to mention inflated 3D ticket prices to help pad its status. The question as for who will finish first between the top three will come down to which film suffers the largest drop from Saturday to Sunday as all three should see 35-40% bumps from Friday to Saturday. As for Courageous, I expect it to stay the course and finish somewhere around $8-9 million.
For the three films at the top I’m guessing it’s going to be close with totals from $12-13 million for each, no telling which one will come out on top based on these numbers.
As for the week’s newcomers Dream House, 50/50 and What’s Your Number? are all looking to make around $6-9 million for the weekend, none breaking out in any kind of major way. I can’t say I’m too surprised considering the trailers for What’s Your Number? looked terrible, Universal did their best to bury Dream House and it appears to have worked and 50/50 is an R-rated cancer dramedy. Let’s be honest, none of those are screaming mass appeal.
I’ve posted Friday’s estimates below and will be back on Sunday morning with a complete wrap-up.
- Moneyball – $3.9 million
- Dolphin Tale – $3.5 million
- The Lion King 3D – $3.3 million
- Courageous – $3.1 million
- Dream House – $2.9 million
- 50/50 – $2.9 million
- What’s Your Number? – $2.1 million
- Abduction – $1.7 million
- Contagion – $1.4 million
- Killer Elite – $1.4 million
