I am still working out my predictions for the screenplay categories, but I hope to have at the very least my animation predictions for you by the end of the week. But over the last few days I’ve been mulling over the Best Picture category and I finally made some moves with seven films moving up and down the board, three of which are brand new to my top seven. Let’s have a look.
I’ll begin with this week’s upcoming release of Moneyball. The “economics of baseball” picture is being loved from all corners and I expect that love to translate over to audiences as it is a film that has something for everyone. Seriously, if this film doesn’t become a major hit I don’t know what to blame it on. Brad Pitt graces the cover of Sports Illustrated and marketing can be seen all over the place. All that’s left is for the film to top this weekend’s box-office and it’s on its way.
Explanation aside, Moneyball made the week’s biggest leap, moving from the #11 position all the way to #4.
Just below Moneyball is the second newcomer to the top tier contenders, the silent film The Artist, which recently played at the Toronto International Film Festival and had come critics seeing (and loving) it for the first time and others seeing it again. The hard part for me with this one is that I enjoyed the film, but am not over the moon like so many others. However, the opinion seems to be in the film’s favor so I am listening to the winds.
As I wrote in my explanation on the official Best Picture prediction page, Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy had something of a stateside coming out party yesterday with screenings in New York and Los Angeles and both screenings resulted in some new love. Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere and Kris Tapley at In Contention both had glowing things to say about the film. Tapley focused a bit more on the design of the film, but both spoke very highly of Gary Oldman as well as members of the supporting cast.
Now, I have made sure to keep this one lower in the rankings for a reason, which is I don’t see both Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy and David Fincher‘s The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo being nominated. If both hold up to expectations, it’s going to be one or the other.
While I moved Dragon Tattoo down a notch today that doesn’t mean it is out of the running in the slightest. Right now I would say I have at least ten serious contenders, as well as a few unseen others, that could begin leap-frogging to the top any minute. All this means is that we still have a long road ahead of us considering Dragon Tattoo and Tinker, Tailor both don’t hit theaters until December.
Moving out of the top contenders are The Descendants, Midnight in Paris and The Ides of March, and if you head over to my official predictions page you will see I have a rash of scenarios where all three could ultimately find their way back above the bubble line. Moving up and down the Oscar prediction board isn’t as simple as one film over another… though it should be.
So, with that I will tell you to click here to check out the updated chart and just below I have included the top seven as I see it at this moment.
- Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (dir. Stephen Daldry)
- J. Edgar (dir. Clint Eastwood)
- War Horse (dir. Steven Spielberg)
- Moneyball (dir. Bennett Miller)
- The Artist (dir. Michel Hazanavicius)
- Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy (dir. Tomas Alfredson)
- The Help (dir. Tate Taylor)
Now it’s your turn. Have I made wrong moves in your opinion or does it look like we’re getting closer to having an early jump on nailing all of the nominees? Speak up in the comments below!
