Box-Office Wrap-Up: ‘The Help’ Tops Labor Day Weekend while ‘The Debt’ Tops All Newcomers
By
Brad Brevet
Surprisingly enough, this weekend was actually better than last, but I’m sure most of that has to do with East Coast theater closures last weekend. This weekend’s top twelve finished approximately $6 million higher than last weekend’s making it the second worst weekend of the year. Whew, would sure hate to be #1 on that list… amirite?
The story this weekend are the dismal returns from the newcomers as The Help once again lands the top spot for a third weekend in a row. Let’s break it down.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
A 2% drop from one weekend to the next is good… Right? I mean, virtually not dropping at all from one weekend to the next can’t be bad. I’m kidding of course, it’s amazing, as it would seem East Coasters who were unable to get to a theater last weekend really wanted to see The Help and made up for it this weekend as the film is now over $118 million and will remain in the Best Picture conversation.
Of course, The Help finishing #1 means Laremy’s #1 streak comes to an end. Oh well, you can’t win ’em all.
Looking at the reader predictions, 41% of you picked The Help to finish #1 with The Check Spot’s $13.6 million prediction being the closest.
Weekend: $14.2 million (2.1% drop) Cummulative Total: $118.6 million RottenTomatoes Score:74% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 and his prediction of $10.9 million was $3.3m off for a percentage error of 23.24%.
What a shocker, The Debt opened on Wednesday and was still able to take down the weekend’s two new teen targeted films. The per theater average ($5,300) is even more of a pummeling seeing how it was in almost a thousand fewer theaters than Shark Night and 1,500 fewer theaters than Apollo 18. Of course, the fact it didn’t crack $10 million still shows how low this weekend’s box-office numbers are, but there are a couple of bright spots for studios to hang their hats on.
On the reader end, Dennis’ $10 million prediction takes the cake.
Weekend: $9.6 million / Cume: $11.5 million / RottenTomatoes:77% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $4.91 million, which is $4.69m off for a 48.85% error.
Apollo 18 is a bust and I think the decision not to screen both it and Shark Night obviously backfired. A lot of the audience these two films were targeting are online and a lot of them know when a film is being hidden from critics and to do so is detrimental in most situations, not because critics sway the decisions of audiences so much, but because when studios hide films it shows such a major lack in confidence it can be felt throughout the film’s entire marketing campaign.
As for this film, things aren’t as bad as they may seem on the surface. Sure, it was in 3,328 theaters, managing only $2,614 per, but the film cost the studio only $5 million before prints and advertising so as bad as things look it will still be profitable.
Among the readers Dennis also came closest on this one with an $8.5 million prediction. Maybe he could help Stiggy out, whose $32 million prediction was a bit off.
Weekend: $8.7 million / RottenTomatoes:24% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #1 with $11.26 million, which is $2.56m off for a 29.43% error.
The worst of the newcomers is Relativity’s latest bust, a $28 million PG-13 film that should have been rated R. Whoever made the decision to greenlight a PG-13, 3D movie about sharks killing people should be in a meeting right now receiving their severence pay. In this industry it’s an unforgivable, brain dead decision. Sharks in a Louisiana lake is silly enough, audiences don’t mind that, but with this kind of a film they want to see blood and lots of it, and probably a bit of nudity. Give it to them, because when you don’t your film fails.
On the reader prediction end, Ian wins this one with an $8.4 million guess.
Weekend: $8.6 million / RottenTomatoes:25% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $7 million, which is $1.6m off for a 18.6% error.
Why has there not been an announcement for a sequel yet? This film lost 181 theaters this weekend and still managed only an 11% drop. It’s over $320 million worldwide. What does Fox need before we hear work on a sequel is underway and planned for 2013? Hell, studios are already lining up for 2014 and 2015 release dates. Get on the ball Fox, it’s a new era.
Weekend: $7.8 million (-11.4% drop) / Cume: $160 million / RottenTomatoes:83% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $4.33 million, which is $3.47m off for a 44.49% error.
Only a 28% dip isn’t too bad. Maybe TriStar’s last second decision to do a full on online marketing blitz for the film this weekend paid off. Personally I agree with the RottenTomatoes rating, but I also don’t think this film will upset anyone that sees it too much. It’s just more of a direct-to-DVD title than on worthy of a theatrical release.
Weekend: $7.4 million (-28.8% drop) / Cume: $21.9 million / RottenTomatoes:33% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $4.26 million, which is $3.14m off for a 42.43% error.
I’m really happy to see the small dip for Our Idiot Brother. It’s one of the best films on the board. It’s funny and heartfelt. I recommend it.
Weekend: $5.1 million (-27.1% drop) / Cume: $15.4 million / RottenTomatoes:68% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.78 million, which is $1.32m off for a 25.88% error.
The largest drop among the top ten belongs to the scary movie that isn’t scary.
Weekend: $4.9 million (-42.4% drop) / Cume: $16.3 million / RottenTomatoes:59% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $3.83 million, which is $1.07m off for a 21.84% error.
What constitutes a bomb? Spy Kids 4 was made for $27 million. Does that mean it’s not a bomb considering it has crossed the $29 million mark, has already made over $10 million overseas and will sell a fair amount of DVD and Blu-ray copies? Just looking for clarification considering the last one made over $111 domestically and just shy of $200 million worldwide.
Weekend: $4.6 million (-23% drop) / Cume: $29 million / RottenTomatoes:23% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.36 million, which is $1.24m off for a 26.96% error.
It’s made over $385 million worldwide. That’s a three times multiplier. Will the sequel blow that number out of the water?
Weekend: $4 million (-14.9% drop) / Cume: $131.9 million / RottenTomatoes:22% Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $3.06 million, which is $0.94m off for a 23.5% error.
There is not a lot to talk about down here this week as I don’t have numbers for A Good Old Fashioned Orgy yet, but the addition of over 1,800 theaters for Cars 2 saw it add $1.1 million to its bottom line and Bad Teacher also beefed up its theatrical presence by 911 theaters and brought in $475,000 more. Bad Teacher still won’t be able to top that century mark as it sits at $98.7 million, but it made a gallant effort.
Next weekend things will heat up a little more as Contagion, Warrior and Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star hit the screen. Contagion is looking to land in over 3,100 theaters while Warrior and Bucky are looking at 1,700 and 1,400 respectively. So it will be Contagion at the top, ending The Help‘s run, but how much will it bring in?
Finally, I’d like to give a shout out to Gitesh Pandya from BoxOfficeGuru.com, whose numbers and Twitter posts every Sunday morning are always a help.
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