Box-Office Wrap Up: ‘Apes’ Rise to the Top Once Again and ‘The Help’ Comes Out of the Gate Strong

Going into the weekend I thought it would be a race between Rise of the Planet of the Apes and Final Destination 5 for the #1 slot. Little did I know The Help had much more fight in it than I imagined. Let’s break it down.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 3 Weeks In A Row

Personally I thought The Help would be hurt by the Wednesday opening and with his predictions, Laremy obviously thought something similar. Yet, the film based on Kathryn Stockett’s bestseller performed well over the weekend, nipping at the Apes‘ heels the whole time. This will likely become another of 2011’s $100 million earners.

The readers either seemed to think this one would land in the mid-teens, just as Laremy assumed, or in the low-to-mid-twenties and The Jackal had the best prediction at $25.7 million, almost nailing it right on the nose.

Weekend: $25.5 million / Cume: $35.3 million / RottenTomatoes: 73%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $16.32 million, which is $9.18m off for a 36% error.
Here is a strange title to consider. This opening is worse than the previous two installments and it saw the widest release out of any of the previous films (3,155 theaters). However, on a budget somewhere around $40-45 million and having approximately 76% of its money coming from 3D screenings, this isn’t a failure, but it isn’t impressive either.

With this opening I’d guess we’re looking close to $50 million domestically, maybe bigger if word of mouth spreads and people tell others it’s nowhere near as bad as the last one. However, internationally is where the fourth film thrived, bringing in almost $120 million. Will this one do the same?

I was surprised to see none of the readers picked this one to finish first, but that just means we have smart readers, with the most accurate prediction among the bunch being Chris Etrata with a $17 million pick.

Weekend: $18.4 million / RottenTomatoes: 57%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $23.2 million, which is $4.8m off for a 26.09% error.
Another small drop for The Smurfs as it is now another one of 2011’s century mark earners and has also managed to bring in $141 million internationally. Yup, the little blue guys are up to $242 million worldwide on a $110 million budget. The reviews may have been bad, but the returns are not and that sequel is on track for August 2, 2013.
Weekend: $13.5 million (-34.8% drop) / Cume: $101.5 million / RottenTomatoes: 22%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $13.04 million, which is $0.46m off for a 3.41% error.
With a $28 million budget it doesn’t really matter this one came in a bit shy of expectations. Laremy gave it a bit more credit than it could live up to (as did most of the readers), but Bustray wasn’t fooled with the closest reader prediction at $12.5 million.
Weekend: $13 million / RottenTomatoes: 45%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $15.6 million, which is $2.6m off for a 20% error.
Cowboys & Aliens is struggling mightily to hit $100 million and I’m not sure it can pull it off. Could this be the #1 reason Disney bailed on The Lone Ranger, even more so than the $200+ million budget?
Weekend: $7.6 million (-51.6% drop) / Cume: $81.4 million / RottenTomatoes: 46%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #7 with $8.18 million, which is $0.58m off for a 7.63% error.
Up to $156.8 million domestically and so far bringing in around $111 million from international territories, this one is beginning to look decent on paper, but with a $140 million budget and the perceived juice around the Avengers franchise it’s hard for me to look at this as much of a success. It’s got a long way to go to match Thor‘s $448 million worldwide tally.
Weekend: $7.1 million (-45.4% drop) / Cume: $156.8 million / RottenTomatoes: 79%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $6.65 million, which is $0.45m off for a 6.34% error.
If this one had done better would the sequel have been titled Crazy, Stupid, Love, Sequel?
Weekend: $6.9 million (-42.5% drop) / Cume: $55.4 million / RottenTomatoes: 76%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $7.93 million, which is $1.03m off for a 14.93% error.
Laremy didn’t think this one would make the top ten, can’t really blame him for that considering everyone and their mother assumed Fox’s Glee: The 3D Concert Movie would make the top ten. But with Glee tanking, the current king of the 2011 box-office, having finally passed Transformers: Dark of the Moon, will take one more weekend in the top ten.
Weekend: $6.8 million (-45.2% drop) / Cume: $356.9 million / RottenTomatoes: 97%

Laremy’s rank: Not Ranked
The Change-Up will take one more weekend in the top ten as well and that will pretty much be the last we’ll hear of it as audiences certainly weren’t showing up for the Bateman and Reynolds body-switch feature. 30 Minutes or Less already looks to be on the same track as this film, both opening to $13 million, will it also enjoy only two weeks among the top ten?
Weekend: $6.2 million (-54.1% drop) / Cume: $25.7 million / RottenTomatoes: 21%

Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #10 with $6.5 million, which is $0.3m off for a 4.84% error.

Like I already mentioned, Glee: The 3D Concert Movie crashed and burned, coming in 11th with $5.7 million. I can only speak for myself when I say that show is terrible and there is no way you could have dragged me into that theater. It looks like others felt the same.

Next week competition heats up. Here are the contenders and some early theater count projections:

Anyone want to wager a guess on next weekend’s results?

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