Friday Box-Office: 'Smurfs' Poised to Defeat 'Cowboys & Aliens' at Weekend Box-Office

It’s been a wild 24 hours for Universal’s Cowboys & Aliens. Before we went into the weekend the last bit of tracking I’d read for Jon Favreau’s sci-fi/western mash-up was $45 million. That seemed to be holding up until $40 million became a more likely number, then it was done to $38 million, then back up to $45 million. Now, things have taken a turn for the worse.

Cowboys & Aliens now has a battle on its hands for the weekend crown, and no, it’s not Captain America: The First Avenger that will beat it.

Instead, Sony’s three-apples-high The Smurfs is over-performing to the point it beat Cowboys on Friday with an estimated $13.3 million and may be looking at a #1 result for the weekend with a possible $38 million, well over the $18-22 million projected for the film going into the weekend. While The Smurfs is playing in 355 fewer theaters than Cowboys & Aliens, that 3D surcharge is obviously working in its favor.

As for Cowboys, it’s a bit of a disappointment. Searching for a reason for the varying projections throughout Friday, Nikki Finke quotes a rival studio exec saying, “Cowboys & Aliens did not get any late night young male business — hence the reason Universal’s estimates were so far off.” Not a good sign going into the weekend as the $163 million budgeted film took in an estimated $12.9 million on Friday and now looks to make somewhere in the $36 million range for the weekend. Will it have enough juice to leap frog The Smurfs or will the little blue guys hold on for the win?

Such a result makes me think back to my late-June article, “Will Cowboys & Aliens be This Year’s Comic Con Disappointment?” Seems the answer may end up being yes.

Moving to Captain America‘s second weekend, it’s not exactly a pretty picture there either as an estimated $7.8 million on Friday should turn into something around $24-25 million for the weekend, for a 61-63% drop from opening weekend. Captain America opened just a few dollars shy of Thor‘s opening weekend earlier this year, but even if the film is capable of reaching the $25 million some box-office reporters are currently speculating for the weekend it would still put it $9.7 million shy of Thor‘s second weekend. Yet, it will still be crossing the $100 million mark total.

The other major new release this weekend was Warner’s Crazy, Stupid, Love, which opened to an estimated $6.6 million on Friday, which should result in a $17-18 million weekend. This is a film I’ll be curious to see how long it can stick around. With The Change-Up hitting theaters next weekend, and being what I believe to be the funniest film of 2011 so far (yes, funnier than Bridesmaids), I think the crowd searching for a laugh may head in that direction.

In limited release, Screen Gems’ Attack the Block took in $43,336 from eight theaters and Lionsgate’s The Devil’s Double opened in only five theaters in New York and Los Angeles to the tune of $31,575.

Finally, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 will become the ninth film to make over $1 billion at the worldwide box-office by the end of the weekend. As of Thursday the film’s global cume was $926 million. Domestically the film should be somewhere around $318 million, which will still leave it approximately $21 million shy of Transformers: Dark of the Moon as the two films continue to battle it out for the #1 spot at the 2011 box-office with Potter gaining fast.

I’ve included top ten Friday estimates below and will be back tomorrow morning with a complete wrap-up.