All of the superhero movies have had similar weekend drops following their opening days this year, although Green Lantern was the only one to suffer its big drop on Saturday rather than Sunday. But the fact of the matter is Captain America: The First Avenger is likely to make north of $60 million after opening with an estimated $25.7 million on Friday, which includes $4 million from midnight screenings. The film is said to carry a $140 million production budget.
Back in May, Thor opened with a similar $25.4 million and went on to a $65.7 million opening. It now all depends on how front-loaded Captain‘s Friday was and what the word on the street is. The big difference between the two releases is kids were still in school back in May and had to catch Thor on Saturday and Sunday, those kids may have already seen Captain America considering it’s summer vacation so we may see a larger Saturday and Sunday drop for Captain than we saw for Thor.
In second is Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 with an estimated $14.6 million, adding to what is now a $240.7 million domestic total. Worldwide, the final Harry Potter feature has so far made over $693 million. Where the film will end up this weekend is a big question mark. Nikki Finke seems to think it could do $50 million (70% drop from opening weekend), but if it follows the same second weekend Saturday/Sunday drop as Part 1 it’s only looking to enjoy a $34.5 million weekend (79% drop from opening weekend). I would expect it now to fall somewhere around $40 million, which would still be a 76% drop from its record-breaking opening weekend. That’s one hell of a front-load.
Friends with Benefits is in the third slot with an estimated $6.8 million Friday opening. Comparisons to the Natalie Portman and Ashton Kutcher rom-com, No Strings Attached, from earlier this year will certainly be made and that film opened with $7.3 million and ended with $19.7 million. Which one will come out on top?
Finally, Woody Allen’s Midnight in Paris looks like it will be in a tenth place battle with Bridesmaids. I only mention this because should Bridesmaids inch into the top ten it will make for four R-rated comedies in the top ten, which would pretty much tell one large chapter of the Summer 2011 story.
I’ve included the Friday top ten estimates directly below and will be back tomorrow morning with a complete weekend box-office wrap-up:
- Captain America: The First Avenger – $25.7 million
- Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 2 – $14.6 million
- Friends with Benefits – $6.8 million
- Horrible Bosses – $3.6 million
- Transformers: Dark of the Moon – $3.5 million
- Zookeeper – $2.8 million
- Cars 2 – $1.7 million
- Winnie the Pooh – $1.6 million
- Bad Teacher – $825,000
- Midnight in Paris – $525,000
