Last weekend didn’t go particularly well for my predictions. The family dollar vanquished Scream 4, with the R-Rated effort unable to even crack $20m. Thankfully, this weekend looks a bit easier to predict, as the Madea franchise has a history of solid openings. Let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 0 Weeks In A Row
2. Rio
Can Rio possibly mount a charge? I’m only dipping it 35 percent, similar to Bee Movie. Which means Madea will really have to fall to Earth for it to be close.
Prediction: $25.59 million
This feels much like a Notebook or Message in a Bottle style of draw. And though there are more than a few vocal R-Patz fans out there he’s never opened a non-Twilight film. Still, at $6,500 per theater, this won’t be a disaster.
Prediction: $18.31 million
4. Scream 4
It will face the largest dip of the weekend, by a substantial margin. The trend seems to indicate that these youth targeted films will open low … and yet still plummet in a frontloaded manner (Your Highness).
Prediction: $8.78 million
6. African Cats
I looked at Oceans for a comparable here. Strangely enough, that one did a 3x multiplier internationally, which means Disney isn’t all that focused on domestic receipts here.
Prediction: $6 million
7. Soul Surfer
A very nice holdover for Soul Surfer last weekend. There’s no reason to think it won’t happen again.
Prediction: $5.23 million
8. Insidious
Ditto for Insidious, though the picture is much rosier with $42m in worldwide gross on a $1.5m production budget.
Prediction: $4.88 million
9. Hanna
Will it do well internationally? That seems to be the only question left on Hanna.
Prediction: $4.36 million
10. Source Code
Jake Gyllenhaal should just edge out Arthur and The Conspirator for the tenth slot.
Prediction: $3.64 million
How say you? I can’t see picking against the proven track record of Madea, but I’m willing to entertain arguments. Comment away!
