I can’t blame Laremy for Rio this weekend. There are some easy theories to follow that would lead him to such a conclusion such as built-in audience and the fact Rio was sure to lose a tiny bit of steam considering the last two week’s box-office #1 Hop was still in theaters. However, there is also a lesson to be learned here, never underestimate the family dollar and a parent’s incentive to put something in front of their children’s eyes to keep ’em quiet for 96 minutes.
As it turns out, based on Friday’s estimates, Laremy actually did quite well predicting Rio, he just dramatically overestimated Scream 4‘s numbers. Laremy pegged Rio for $36.1 million for the weekend and after its estimated $10.1 million on Friday that is exactly where it looks it will end up. His $44.5 million prediction for Scream 4, however, is looking to be about double of what the film will end up taking after an opening Friday of $7.9 million.
While Laremy’s prediction on Scream 4 is off, this isn’t a disappointing effort for the horror, what will be disappointing is if it is massively front-loaded, because a $20-22 million return does not make for a very large front-load. The audience CinemaScore for this one is a B-, which is quite good, so perhaps this one will have legs.
And speaking of legs, check out the film in the #3 position. FilmDistrict is grinning ear-to-ear as it looks to best all of last week’s newcomers with Insidious, the other horror in theaters, which took in an estimated $2.3 million and should translate to about a $6.3 million weekend signaling a mere 32% drop. Should Scream 4 be able to duplicate a similar track record it will be well on its way to a Scream 5. As for Insidious, it will likely end the weekend with a domestic cume of over $35 million, which on a $1.5 million budget is pretty damned impressive.
As for last week’s new releases, they’re in a log jam with Hop right behind Insidious, all taking in estimates from $2-2.2 million and I can’t see them separating much as each serves a different audience. It would be nice to see Hanna rise out of the pack, as it did last week when it slipped just above Arthur for the #2 slot.
Robert Redford’s The Conspirator, which looks to have a surprisingly impressive debut as it was showing in only 707 theaters and made $1.1 million on Friday, and should move to around $3.5 million for the weekend. A positive result.
The final newcomer on the board is Atlas Shrugged: Part I which is heading to a strong $2.1-2.4 million for the weekend after $670,000 on Friday from just 299 screens.
I have included Friday’s top ten below and will be back on Sunday morning with a complete wrap-up
- Rio – $10.1 million
- Scream 4 – $7.9 million
- Insidious – $2.3 million
- Hop – $2.2 million
- Soul Surfer – $2.12 million
- Hanna – $2.1 million
- Arthur – $2.0 million
- Source Code – $1.8 million
- Your Highness – $1.2 million
- The Conspirator – $1.1 million
