This weekend holds the potential for mayhem, and I feel like Admiral Josh Painter in The Hunt for the Red October. “This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we’ll be lucky to live through it.” What am I talking about? Well, two films have the potential to open at $40m this weekend, a feat precisely zero movies have achieved so far this year. As such, it’s the most competitive race we’ve seen for the top slot, let’s break it down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 2 Weeks In A Row
2. Rio
I’m still penning this review, but I found it to be about what you’d expect. I just can’t bring myself to call for $10k per theater, though if it hits How to Train Your Dragon‘s $10,785 per theater that would equal nearly $41m. For me, it’s about eight percent lesser of a marketing pull, though I should note it has already surpassed $50m internationally, a nice little starting nest egg.
Prediction: $36.1 million
3. Hop
On a production budget of $63m, Hop sits at $85m worldwide. If they can get to $150m or so theatrically they’ll probably consider it a victory.
Prediction: $13.42 million
4. Hanna
Last weekend’s surprise silver medalist should face a light drop this weekend, largely because it’s not trolling in a frontloaded demo.
Prediction: $9.51 million
5. Arthur
It should face the second biggest drop of the weekend, just ahead of Your Highness.
Prediction: $7.58 million
6. Insidious
The budget was less than $2m, and they will clear $35m this weekend. That’s what we call “good”.
Prediction: $7.5 million
7. Soul Surfer
It did fairly well to hit double digits last weekend, though I have no idea how they spent $18m on surfboards and waves.
Prediction: $6.89 million
8. Source Code
It could use an international push, and I think it will get one, as it’s not an overly domestic style of film.
Prediction: $5.62 million
The main problem was the lack of comedy. Sure, it had some laughs, but not really enough to break on through for a profit.
Prediction: $5.15 million
10. The Conspirator
This spot could also very easily go to Limitless, but I know we all enjoy predicting new titles.
Prediction: $2.82 million
Here’s your chance to shine. Scream 4 or Rio at the top, and by how much? Predictions away!
