Nikki Finke at Deadline wrote the following over the weekend:
Right now anyone predicting with any certainty the Top 5 order of finish for the top grossing North American movies is either a) The World’s Greatest Psychic, or b) none of my box office gurus, or c) not me.
Laremy nailed the top spot and was one of the few box-office prognosticators to do so and had just the #2 and #3 slots reversed as well as the #9 and #10 slots. If only he had placed Rango ahead of Battle: Los Angeles I would have had to change the title of his column from Box-Office Oracle to the World’s Greatest Box-Office Psychic. That would have been exciting.
With that introduction out of the way, let’s look at the weekend that was so I can get back to watching my Tar Heels take on the local Huskies… No, I’m not torn… Tar Heels all the way!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 4 Weeks In A Row
Rango continues to hold on strong with only a 32% dip, edging closer to $100 million as it now sits at $92.6m. Good to see it’s most likely found its audience, this is one I think I will enjoy owning and watching at home on occasion.
Result: $15.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #3 with $15.37 million, which is $0.069999999999999m off for a 0.46% error.
A 58% dip for Battle: Los Angeles is not what Columbia had in mind. But with a rumored budget of $70 million and the film now hitting $60.6 million domestically and its worldwide run just getting underway a I wonder if they’ll be able to spin things in their favor. After all, I think we all know that $70 million price tag is junk, they had to have spent at least another $35-50 million on marketing alone.
Result: $14.6 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #2 with $16.36 million, which is $1.76m off for a 12.05% error.
The controversial result of the weekend is probably The Lincoln Lawyer and its flurry of Groupon ticket sales, ticket sales that Lionsgate pretty much funded themselves which is to say the studio pretty much paid for their place here in the top five. I explained that a little more in my Friday report, so I won’t repeat it here but you can read up on it right here.
John-PT’s $13.1 million prediction was damn near spot on. Kudos.
Result: $13.4 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #4 with $14.4 million, which is $1m off for a 7.46% error.
Rounding out the top five is the film a few of you had as your #1 so I’m sure there are at least three of you a bit surprised Paul took home only $13.2 million. Paul has already taken in $25.7 million overseas as it opened in the UK on Valentine’s Day and it still has a lot of territories to hit making that $40 million reported budget look manageable. Hopefully I’ll be able to check it out this week, but I’ve yet to hear an opinion that has me thinking it will be any good even though I love Hot Fuzz and Shaun of the Dead. However, it seems parodying movies is funnier than simply referencing them… to me at least.
As for user predictions, give a hand to John-PT who actually nailed this one right on the head with a $13.2 million guess.
Result: $13.2 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #5 with $12.15 million, which is $1.05m off for a 7.95% error.
Warner’s Red Riding Hood dipped 48% from last weekend’s soft opening and is now at $26 million. With a budget of $42 million I have to assume Warner is going to walk away from this one with very little harm, but I think studios will begin second guessing their attempts at creating Twilight carbon copies in the future.
Result: $7.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #6 with $7.42 million, which is $0.12m off for a 1.64% error.
Disney’s Mars Needs Moms is dying a quick and painful death, though I have to assume Disney execs are now looking at that $150 million price tag with a shrug and hoping they can manage a small amount out of DVD and Blu-ray sales. The thought process now has to be something along the lines of just hoping for the best, because there will be no winning with this one.
Result: $5.3 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #8 with $3.8 million, which is $1.5m off for a 28.3% error.
Do any of you actually want to see the Farrelly brothers make The Three Stooges?
Result: $2.6 million Laremy’s rank: Laremy picked it to finish #9 with $3.02 million, which is $0.42m off for a 16.15% error.
As for those films not in the top ten, Jane Eyre had another strong weekend in limited release bringing in $477,796 from 26 theaters. The film opens in 11 markets next weekend and this weekend’s $18,377 per screen average tells me it will be a top ten performer.
