Box-Office Oracle: Feb. 11 – Feb. 13, 2011

The streak is theoretically in jeopardy this weekend, as Justin Bieber’s “documentary” takes on Adam Sandler’s latest “comedy”. Sorry, I couldn’t resist the quotes, and as it turns out neither of these films is precisely what they seem, so let’s break this thing down!
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 5 Weeks In A Row
There are 10 million American females between the ages of 10 and 14. Let’s chop 20 percent off that number to reflect the poverty line. We’re down to 8 million, and at twelve dollars a ticket, something around 25 percent market saturation for Bieber feels about right. Some kids aren’t into it, right?
Prediction: $25.5 million
It’s all set for the family dollar, but it’s far more cutesy than “good”. So $5k per theater is about all I can do for it. Don’t blame me, blame the lack of comedy inherent in gnomes.
Prediction: $13.5 million
A 54 percent drop, but the film only cost $16m to make.
Prediction: $6.9 million
Lacking theaters and likely miscast. If you want teen girl dollars you don’t make a war film. If you want guy dollars you don’t cast Channing Tatum. My prediction suggests they’ll pay for those decisions this weekend.
Prediction: $6.45 million
People are still catching up with the Best Picture nominees so a smallish 25 percent dip is probable.
Prediction: $5.78 million
I might see it this weekend. The holds it has been putting up suggests at least a decent time.
Prediction: $4.26 million
Our biggest dipper of the weekend, well deserved.
Prediction: $4.06 million
A legit photo finish for ninth and tenth place.
Prediction: $2.97 million
If they can finagle another $60m or so internationally I’d say they are in good shape. Get to finagling!
Prediction: $2.95 million

That’s the way I see it at least. How say you? Was I too hard on C-Tates? Do you like the Bieber nation’s chances this weekend? Comment away, I’ll be checking in and Brad will be back on Sunday to wrap this weekend up nice and neat.

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