Final 2011 Oscar Predictions Prior to Tomorrow’s Oscar Nominations

In less than 24 hours we will no longer be discussing who will be nominated for an Oscar, but rather who will win. On Tuesday morning at 5:38:30 a.m. PST (seriously, the Academy has nailed it down to the second) the 2011 Oscar nominations will be announced.

There are certainly front-runners to this point and we’ve discussed them at length from The Social Network‘s dominance as well as the recent surprise victory for The King’s Speech from the Producers Guild. Films such as The Fighter pose serious threats in the acting categories and it looks like Natalie Portman and Annette Bening will be battling it out for leading actress.

However, beyond the top categories, this is the first year I’ve ever attempted to predict the nominees in every single category (barring the short film categories). I opened up “The Contenders” section of the site back in April 2010, and it is now a section of the site that will be live all year round. The question is, what have we learned from it?

Does year round coverage give any of us an advantage when it comes to predicting these nominations? Can we hope for some unanticipated surprise nominations tomorrow? Take a look at my predictions for all 21 categories, read a few of my thoughts and then let me know where you think I’ve got it wrong.

I’ve included only the contenders I believe will be nominated and I’ve ordered them all in how I believe they rank in each category. If you’d like to see the contenders that missed my predicted nominee list just click on the “browse full prediction list” links under each individual heading for a look at how I shifted things over the weekend to arrive at these results and where any of the potential nominees I left off ended up on my final charts.

All that said, let’s get to it…

The toughest thing about the Best Picture category was deciding what films wouldn’t make the cut. It pained me to leave Another Year off the list and at the last minute I moved The Town into the top ten sending Danny Boyle’s 127 Hours to the #11 spot. I also think this race could change dramatically in terms of rankings should The Fighter end up taking Best Ensemble at the Screen Actors Guild Awards this coming Sunday and we’ve also got the Directors Guild announcing their winner the day before.

1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. The Fighter
4. True Grit
5. Black Swan
6. Inception
7. Toy Story 3
8. The Kids are All Right
9. The Town
10. Winter’s Bone

This race seems clear cut, but that doesn’t mean I’ll be surprised if my #4 and #5 spots don’t make the final list. Robert Duvall (Get Low) and Jeff Bridges (True Grit) are my two men right below the bubble and either of them could slide into the top five. Any of you think either of them will? Anyone get the gumption to predict a nomination for Mark Wahlberg (The Fighter)?

1. Colin Firth (The King’s Speech)
2. Jesse Eisenberg (The Social Network)
3. James Franco (127 Hours)
4. Javier Bardem (Biutiful)
5. Ryan Gosling (Blue Valentine)

I was very tempted to move Annette Bening into the #1 slot, but I think Portman still holds a slight edge, but I can’t say I’ll feel that way forever. However, those are the only two names I have complete confidence will be nominated on Tuesday morning. Kidman, Manville and Lawrence could easily be replaced by Michelle Williams (Blue Valentine) or Julianne Moore (The Kids Are All Right).

Of the three that round out my top five, I would say Jennifer Lawrence is pretty much a lock in my mind. I only have her in the #5 spot because the Academy seems like they’d have a hard time giving the Oscar to a 21-year-old first time Oscar nominee over any of the names I have predicted above her.

1. Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
2. Annette Bening (The Kids are All Right)
3. Nicole Kidman (Rabbit Hole)
4. Lesley Manville (Another Year)
5. Jennifer Lawrence (Winter’s Bone)

I think we all pretty much agree on the two men we believe are competing at the top for this Oscar. There may be a few of you that believe Rush will win, but I would also say I believe the majority predict Bale. However, after Jeremy Renner (who seems like a lock at this point) those last two spots seem up for grabs.

My biggest risk is predicting a John Hawkes nomination over Andrew Garfield (The Social Network). I’m probably wrong, but I didn’t want to go entirely chalk. Sam Rockwell (Conviction) is the other name I still think has a small chance at a nomination, but it’s a very small chance.

1. Christian Bale (The Fighter)
2. Geoffrey Rush (The King’s Speech)
3. Jeremy Renner (The Town)
4. Mark Ruffalo (The Kids are All Right)
5. John Hawkes (Winter’s Bone)

I can’t help but wonder if the Academy will be smart and nominate Lesley Manville (Another Year) for Supporting Actress. At the same time I wonder how many of them will mess up and nominate Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit) in lead (where she also belongs). However, at the top of the heap we have the two ladies from The Fighter competing against the one lady from The King’s Speech.

Beyond that, there’s a slew of names I wouldn’t be surprised if they slid into the #4 and #5 slots. Mila Kunis, Barbara Hershey, Dianne Wiest, Elle Fanning and Dale Dickey being the first five to miss the cut for starters.

1. Melissa Leo (The Fighter)
2. Helena Bonham Carter (The King’s Speech)
3. Amy Adams (The Fighter)
4. Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
5. Jacki Weaver (Animal Kingdom)

The Directors Guild picked David O. Russell (The Fighter) and I picked Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit). I really don’t think any other names stand much of a chance, especially with 127 Hours seeming to fall off the map.

1. David Fincher (The Social Network)
2. Christopher Nolan (Inception)
3. Darren Aronofsky (Black Swan)
4. Tom Hooper (The King’s Speech)
5. Joel and Ethan Coen (True Grit)

I have a hard time believing Chris Nolan’s screenplay for Inception won’t win this, but as far as a few scripts that missed the list I have Another Year (Mike Leigh), Blue Valentine (Derek Cianfrance, Joey Curtis and Cami Delavigne) and Please Give (Nicole Holofcener) as my first three runners-up.

1. Inception (Christopher Nolan)
2. The Kids are All Right (Stuart Blumberg and Lisa Cholodenko)
3. Black Swan (Mark Heyman, Andres Heinz and John J. McLaughlin)
4. The King’s Speech (David Seidler)
5. The Fighter (Paul Attanasio, Lewis Colich, Eric Johnson, Scott Silverand Paul Tamasy)

I don’t see how Sorkin doesn’t take this home, it seems to be a lock at this point, but I don’t know about the order of the rest. True Grit is ranked high once again, primarily because I love it, but the one script I left off my list that I think may bump one of my predictions off is Debra Granik and Anne Rosellini’s script for Winter’s Bone.

1. The Social Network (Aaron Sorkin)
2. True Grit (Joel Coen and Ethan Coen)
3. The Town (Ben Affleck, Peter Craig and Sheldon Turner)
4. Toy Story 3 (Michael Arndt, story by John Lasseter, Andrew Stanton and Lee Unkrich)
5. 127 Hours (Simon Beaufoy and Danny Boyle)

I’m at a loss. I’m going with the one I’ve heard from so many people is so great as my front-runner and then I’m going with three others I’ve seen for spots 2, 3 and 5. The only one I have not seen of these five is Life, Above All, but from what I understand it is actually the most likely of them all to win.

1. Incendies (Canada)
2. In a Better World (Denmark)
3. Biutiful (Mexico)
4. Life, above All (South Africa)
5. Dogtooth (Greece)

I don’t think Waiting for “Superman” deserves to win, but I think it will. I’m also going with a total crap shoot for my fifth slot as I have not seen all of the documentary contenders.

1. Waiting for “Superman”
2. Inside Job
3. Exit Through the Gift Shop
4. The Tillman Story
5. Waste Land

I have a sneaking suspicion Despicable Me may take that third slot, but I have a hard time believing the Academy wouldn’t prefer tossing in a film that isn’t a 100% CG-animated 3D feature among the nominees.

1. Toy Story 3
2. How to Train Your Dragon
3. The Illusionist

All signs point to this being the year eight-time Oscar nominee Roger Deakins finally gets his Oscar. Anyone care to disagree?

1. True Grit (Roger Deakins)
2. Black Swan (Matthew Libatique)
3. Inception (Wally Pfister)
4. The King’s Speech (Danny Cohen)
5. The Social Network (Jeff Cronenweth)

1. Alice in Wonderland (Colleen Atwood)
2. True Grit (Mary Zophres)
3. Black Swan (Amy Westcott)
4. The King’s Speech (Jenny Beaven)
5. Burlesque (Michael Kaplan)

1. Inception
2. Black Swan
3. The Social Network
4. TRON: Legacy
5. Unstoppable

1. Inception
2. The Social Network
3. Black Swan
4. True Grit
5. TRON: Legacy

1. Inception
2. TRON: Legacy
3. Alice in Wonderland
4. Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
5. Scott Pilgrim vs. the World

1. Alice in Wonderland
2. The Wolfman
3. The Fighter

I would love to see this go to The Social Network, but I have a feeling Inception is going to be a juggernaut when it comes to a lot of these technical awards.

1. Inception (Lee Smith)
2. The Social Network (Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall)
3. The Fighter (Pamela Martin)
4. Black Swan (Andrew Weisblum)
5. The King’s Speech (Tariq Anwar)

1. Alice in Wonderland (Robert Stromberg and Karen O’Hara)
2. Inception (Guy Hendrix Dyas, Larry Dias and Doug Mowatt)
3. True Grit (Jess Gonchor and Nancy Haigh)
4. The King’s Speech (Eve Stewart and Judy Farr)
5. TRON: Legacy (Darren Gilford and Lin MacDonald)

This is a tough call and I wanted to move Daft Punk’s TRON: Legacy score much higher, but just couldn’t bring myself to do it. I’m sure you have suggestions for some scores I didn’t predict that you think will make the cut over some of my choices.

1. The Social Network (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross)
2. Inception (Hans Zimmer)
3. How to Train Your Dragon (John Powell)
4. The King’s Speech (Alexandre Desplat)
5. TRON: Legacy (Daft Punk)

1. “I See the Light” from Tangled
2. “We Belong Together” from Toy Story 3
3. “If I Rise” from 127 Hours
4. “Shine” from Waiting for “Superman”
5. “You Haven’t Seen the Last of Me” from Burlesque

So there you have it. Now remember, tomorrow morning — Tuesday, January 25 — at 5:38:30 a.m. PST I will be here with the Oscar nominations. I will be getting them up on the site as fast as humanly possible and will follow that up later that morning with a reaction piece where I’ll discuss some of the hopeful surprises, some of the snubs and where I want to hear from you, be it good or bad reactions to the nominations.

Until then, predict away in the comments below. What contenders did I leave off my nomination lists that you believe will get a nomination? What are the toughest calls and what contenders are your front-runners?