It’s a strange weekend to predict. The Greet Hornet is a massive outlier, and Vince Vaughn has (essentially) never been relegated to a January opening. Plus a few of the holdovers are looking to gain theaters and momentum. The result is pandemonium. Dead zone dumping ground pandemonium, sure, but calamity all the same. Let’s break it down!
IMPORTANT NOTE: These predictions are for the normal three-day weekend, not the four-day holiday.
Laremy predicted the #1 movie correctly 1 Week In A Row
2. The Dilemma
Spoiler alert: it is horrid. But not enough people will be aware of that on Friday and Saturday, so you can’t really call full-on doom here. Which brings us to the brief history of comedy in January. Along Came Polly and 27 Dresses both look similar enough in terms of marketing to throw out $7,500 per theater.
Prediction: $22.13 million
3. True Grit
I really need to watch that Dude Abides special that aired last night. Other than that, what does one opine about True Grit? A solid film, but not the best Coen film ever, though it has gained the most initial mainstream acceptance. I’m fine with that, because I want the fellas to make films for the next fifty years.
Prediction: $9.27 million
4. Black Swan
Getting a major theater count push this weekend. But aren’t Oscar ballots due on January 14? Is this push just an effort to get a few Best Picture votes down the line, once the nominations are announced?
Prediction: $8.64 million
It looks as though it will end up as the lowest grossing Focker film of the bunch. So that’s something.
Prediction: $6.6 million
6. TRON: Legacy
Rumor is we’re getting sequelized. Hopefully this time we learn more about Sam Flynn’s ultra-cool waterfront industrial condo.
Prediction: $5.31 million
Theater counts weren’t announced as this column was being written, I’m going to be very upset if they get above 1,000 this weekend, as it will shred my prediction.
Prediction: $4.6 million
The highly coveted “biggest drop of the weekend” trophy.
Prediction: $4.35 million
10. Country Strong
Just a wacky, wacky, movie. I wish anyone had seen it so I could discuss it with them. I’ve even offered to pay my friends to go, but they’ve all turned me down cold.
Prediction: $3.92 million
How say you? Do you have a feel for the new releases? Will one of the holdovers make a charge? Comment early, comment often — Brad will be back on Sunday to wrap this baby up.
