Box-Office Oracle: Jan. 8 – Jan. 10, 2010

The Dark Knight and Return of the King come to mind when you’re talking about movies that have taken four weekends in a row (oh, and that Titanic movie). That’s good company. I’m predicting a 37 percent drop, finally breaking the streak of not dropping double digits.

I should mention The Grinch took four weekends in a row too, but I’m not sure how I feel about that one anymore. It’s been a long time.

Estimate: $42.7 million

My top twelve of the weekend are set to gross $159m, down from last weekend’s $209m. That’s a 24 percent drop. Last year the second weekend in January only dropped two percent. So am I too high? Too low? I suppose I should have saved this portion for the end.

Estimate: $22.2 million

Sherlock stands at $233m worldwide, though it had to have a giant budget. They still need a bigger international push.

Estimate: $19.4 million

This title could go much bigger, because it’s been a full two weekends since people had an opportunity to choose something new. But $6,500 per theater feels about right, if only because of 30 Days of Night‘s number.

Estimate: $19.4 million

A miserable film. But they’ll convince 1.85 out of every 30 Americans to see it.

Estimate: $12.3 million

They’ve cracked the top 1000 all time at the box office. No, I didn’t adjust for inflation.

Estimate: $11.5 million

I’m a little bullish because I think the teens are ready to pounce. I’ve put it at a little over half of a Superbad opening (per theater).

Estimate: $11.2 million

It looks likely to earn 10x its production budget theatrically. That’s not done very often, though The Hangover put up a 13x the production budget.

Estimate: $7.4 million

It seems to be fading on the Oscar talk, buried beneath the box office muscle of Avatar and the hipster cool of Hurt Locker.

Estimate: $5.5 million

Still needs around $200m in box office to feel good about the theatrical run. So no, they aren’t quite there yet.

Estimate: $4.6 million