#1 movie predicted correctly: 9 Weeks in a Row
1. Avatar
After Christmas the box office tends to fall around 27 percent, but the box office was so massive last weekend that I’ve got to think it will come down slightly more. I still can’t ding anything more than 40 percent, and I’m only knocking Avatar 35.7 percent. Luckily for Cameron and Co., that’s still enough to win the derby. It will be the third weekend in a row for Avatar, though the year of 2009 wraps with no films having accomplished that feat, as Avatar will get there too late. The last film to do it? Tropic Thunder.
Estimate: $48.6 million
Avatar has been crushing Sherlock in the daily returns, which could mean: 1) Avatar is building momentum and Sherlock will get beaten badly this weekend or 2) Demand will be higher this weekend for Sherlock Holmes because the working folk haven’t been going during the week. In typical Oracle fashion, I’m placing my bet somewhere in-between those two theories.
Estimate: $43.4 million
So what do we want to call the third one? Chipmunks Tres: The Race! or perhaps Alvin & The Chipmunks Trois: Super Guffaw!. I guess I should get out and trademark those. We’re at $170m worldwide cume and counting here.
Estimate: $29.3 million
Alec Baldwin suggested a sequel here, where he starts dating Steve Martin called It’s Really Complicated. Clever work, Alec. Let me know if you’d like to fill in for a weekend or two.
Estimate: $15.9 million
Does anyone feel like the Oscar buzz is slipping on this title? Or is that just me hoping?
Estimate: $9.6 million
This one should become the eighth title to hit $200m domestically in 2009.
Estimate: $9.1 million
It’s been clearing $3m per day this week, that should stay constant with parents getting some free time.
Estimate: $9.0 million
About a Boy was another superior Hugh Grant film. In fact, I would have just re-released that one.
Estimate: $3.8 million
9. Nine
There is a bright side to Nine‘s mortal wound. The Weinstein Company can now focus exclusively on getting Inglourious Basterds a Best Picture win. Work the phones, fellas!
Estimate: $3.6 million
10. Invictus
Invictus will outlast and outplay New Moon this weekend to finish tenth.
Estimate: $3.0 million
How say you? Still taking Sherlock to win? Am I too low or too high on a title or two? Comment early and often, and welcome to 2010!
