Oscar Predictions: Take Three, All Top Eight Categories

Well, since last week’s edition I have seen The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Doubt, Revolutionary Road and earlier today I saw The Reader. I can tell all interested parties that I think all four are quality films, but obviously some get me a bit more excited than others. I already did a short commentary on my thoughts of Benjamin Button, which basically proclaimed my love for the film and I do think it is going to end up being the film to beat as I have a limited number of films yet to see, but it isn’t going to be an easy task because the majority of the films behind it are all pretty much operating on the same level. Basically, if you think of a door blocking Benjamin Button from all other contenders, just imagine the pounding that door is going to take as a group of films will be beating on it in unison as opposed to just one or two other contenders. Who knows, maybe they will break it down.

2008 has been a relatively weak year for stand-out films, but I think it has been a rather good year for a lot of “good” films, not films that specifically blow you away but films that manage to have an impact on you in some way. For me that encapsulates Revolutionary Road, Doubt and The Reader and all for different reasons.

With Revolutionary Road I think I enjoyed the concept more than the film itself as Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet both offer up conflicting viewpoints and you are able to connect with both of them on one level or another. Kate Winslet’s character looking for a way to restart the marriage while DiCaprio’s character is right in line until a great opportunity at work and other contributing factors throw a kink in their plan to pick up and start their lives over in Paris. The film has some amazing performances and you will see Leonardo DiCaprio jump two spots as he, in my book, is a serious contender for Best Actor. Kate Winslet is good, but I have a feeling expectations may have led me to believe it would be amazing. I personally believe she is much better in The Reader. Michael Shannon is unfortunately going to come in second to Heath Ledger with a performance that makes the film something special (Josh Brolin and his performance in Milk will suffer the same fate). This isn’t a review of the film, and like I said I like the ideas brought up in the film more than the film itself, which you will notice once you get to the Best Picture charts.

As for The Reader I enjoyed it very much even though it has some obvious problems, one of which is a relatively slow and meandering start and I also think 15 minutes or so could have been shaved directly off the end of the film leaving a small bit of ambiguity, but Stephen Daldry stuck to the story and took it to its end. I would say I can’t argue with the Weinstein Co. selling Winslet as a supporting actress in this film even though her character is definitely the focal point of the story. I say this only because there really is no major lead and if there was one it would be David Kross as young Michael Berg. Fiennes has been dropped from my Supporting list as his role is so limited there is no chance. And in the cinematography department, Roger Deakins and Chris Menges (The Mission) turn in some stunning visuals. One scene in particular when a 16-year-old Michael Berg hops onto Hanna Schmitz’s trolley at twilight is just beautiful. I don’t, however, see a lot of Oscar range for the flick primarily because I think the Academy will focus on Winslet as a Lead Actress in Revolutionary Road and the film itself has just enough missteps in this mediocre year to be overlooked. That doesn’t make it a bad movie by any stretch, I certainly enjoyed it, but I think many will find it a bit slow.

Just like last time, I have ranked each pick 1-10 and I ask you to remember that we are still a long way away as I still have films to see. The list of films I have not seen yet include:

Of that bunch I will be seeing Seven Pounds and Valkyrie next week. And don’t forget we are less than a week away from the Thursday morning, December 11, 2008 announcement of the Golden Globe nominees.

As for the predictions, there are a few factors I took into consideration as I put together this week’s list in case you missed it over the course of the week. This includes a growing trend by Oscar bloggers pushing for Slumdog Millionaire as well as the National Board of Review naming it Best Feature of 2008, Melissa Leo and Frozen River‘s recent success including Dustin Hoffman’s glowing commentary on her performance.

So, with no further delay, click on the Next Page link to take a look at the predictions and please share your thoughts on my picks and predictions in the comments below.

The 81st Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Thursday, January 22, 2009, at 5:30 a.m. PT in the Academy’s Samuel Goldwyn Theater. You can keep up with all my Oscar coverage in my “The Contenders” section right here.

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