Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold currently list the following five films as the biggest contenders for the Oscar (complete list here):
Hmm, I like three of these picks a lot. The first of the three is Atonement which has been screened for critics already and the word has been generally terrific across the board. Also, consider that director Joe Wright might have just missed real Oscar respect for his take on Pride and Prejudice two years ago.
From the moment American Gangster‘s trailer screened, I think it was apparent that the film was to be taken seriously in the Oscar season and after its first big screening a couple of days ago, it seems like the movie might be making good on its promise.
To a somewhat lesser extent, No Country for Old Men, seems ripe for contention. Nobody likes to kiss the ass of the Coens more than I do but I do know sometimes their films – even their darker ones – can be a little too quirky for some voters’ tastes.
The other two current top five picks I’m not so sure about. Charlie Wilson’s War seems like a no-brainer on paper. You have three major talents in director Mike Nichols, some actor named Tom Hanks and the screenwriter, Aaron Sorkin. The material is high-grade too. Hanks is a Texas congressman who did his part in bringing down the Soviet Union, only to set up the blowback in the form of al Qaeda. I hear it’s some kind of wicked dramedy. So far, so good. But Nichol’s last movie, Closer – a movie I loved – didn’t rack up as many big ones as I thought it should have. This might be one of those flicks that if they miss slightly, or miss with a certain portion of voters, something else will sneak in its spot.
Into the Wild I just don’t see happening. It’s gotten mad respect from the critical community, including high praise for its star Emile Hirsch, but this movie just doesn’t scream Oscar. I don’t see it making a lot of bank and that might prove fatal. The one thing it does have going for it in terms of Oscar chances (other than the quality of the product) is the Sean Penn factor. Germans love David Hasselhoff and Academy voters love Sean Penn.
The biggest loser on this list is In The Valley of Elah, which looked like a front runner only a month ago but is ranked 15th overall. Eastern Promises is ranked 13th, despite strong support from the critics, but this very entertaining flick is probably too genre-based and Cronenbergy. Faring a little better with the Gurus is Michael Clayton, which on the surface seems like an Oscar sleeper but something tells me it is more likely to be respected, than supported.
I don’t really understand how Sweeney Todd is way up there at number 6, just missing the top five contenders. I haven’t seen the play, so I bow before the Guru cult but I don’t know, something feels wrong about it. I know it stars Johnny Depp and I know he’s an Oscar favorite of late but when was the last time Tim Burton and Oscar were mentioned in the same sentence?
The two movies that I imagine will be on the rise in a hurry are There Will Be Blood, Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest opus (currently ranked 9th) and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead (currently ranked 14th) which is being praised as a real return to form for director Sidney Lumet.
I’m a little curious what will become of The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (currently a “One Vote Wonder”) in the next few weeks and how the Gurus will react towards it. It appears Zodiac, still one of the very best movies of the year, is a “One Vote Wonder” as well and since it came out all the way back in January, it’s got to be considered dead, dead, dead.
Keep in mind these rankings can be adjusted at any moment so depending on when you’re reading this, they may not be applicable. We’ll be keeping an eye on the Gurus chart and we’ll be sure to hand you our own takes in the next coming months when the Oscar season really begins to cook. Till then…
