I was way over this weekend on the big ones, clearly the public is already worn out. That doesn’t bode well for the rest of the contenders this year, and I think it’s safe to say that Spider-Man 3‘s record will stick through next year.
#1 movie predicted correctly: Four Weeks In A Row
That’s quite a bit off. I originally was on record as saying this one would be hurt by the running time and word of mouth coming off the second one. Then, invariably, I became sucked in by the hype. I’m just happy I didn’t proclaim it would capture the record, then I would have looked super dumb.
Result: $142.0 million (My rank: #1, $42.8m off)
My colleagues at ComingSoon.net had this at $82.3 so it’s not like I was smoking hookah pipe. It dropped 56% over the three day weekend, partly because families knew they could see it Monday and partly because it wasn’t great. Never underestimate the power of “not great” movies to under perform at the box office.
Result: $69.0 million (My rank: #2, $21.6m off)
3. Spider-Man 3
Here was a respectable prediction. This stands at $806m worldwide, Pirates at $400m. Spidey has a two week head start but I still think it out grosses Pirates overall, something I would not have predicted no matter how opaque my crystal ball.
Result: $18.0 million (My rank: #3, $2.2m off)
4. Bug
Pure and simple, a beating. Bug proved that a horror without a marketable star against three trilogies will get rocked. I don’t know when this rule will come into play again but there it is.
Result: $4.2 million (My rank: #4, $4.7m off)
5. Waitress
It gained a ton of theaters after my numbers came out. This is called “cheating.” The Waitress cheated me.
Result: $4.0 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
Box Office Mojo has this ranked as the seventh highest grossing Zombie genre film of all time. Lesson: Don’t make zombie movies.
Result: $3.3 million (My rank: #5, $.6m off)
7. Disturbia
My trend of being a smidge over continues. Also of note, for all the weekends this one captured it still won’t sniff that magical $100m mark.
Result: $2.4 million (My rank: #6, $.5m off)
8. Georgia Rule
It seems as though everyday we get fresh news on Paris, Britney, or Lindsay. We need new, more interesting, more accomplished gossip fodder going forward.
Result: $2.3 million (My rank: #7, $.3m off)
9. Fracture
Why do they release production budgets on some films and not others? For instance, they didn’t release one here. Aren’t the studios all publicly traded entities at this point? How do they get away with this? It all seems like a big scam to me to hide what is succeeding and what is getting drilled.
Result: $1.6 million (My rank: #8, $.1m off)
10. Wild Hogs
How, three months after it’s released, does Wild Hogs sneak back into the top ten?? No one could have predicted that, not even God. Maybe they should relaunch the marketing campaign and see if they can launch this thing higher.
Result: $1.4 million (My rank: Not Ranked)
