Hey there peeps. As you may have already noticed, the Screen Actors Guild Award nominees were announced this morning and a lot of it confirmed what we already knew. There aren’t many surprises here so I’ll try to keep it brief.
Leonardo DiCaprio – Blood Diamond
Ryan Gosling – Half Nelson
Peter O’Toole – Venus
Will Smith – The Pursuit of Happyness
Forest Whitaker – The Last King of Scotland
Interestingly, DiCaprio scored for his excellent Blood Diamond work and not for his equally excellent role in The Departed in this category (he was nominated for the Supporting category for the Scorcese film). This made room for Ryan Gosling to get some love and score a possible tide-turning nomination. I haven’t seen Half Nelson, but the list of actors above look like a very real possibility when all is said and done. I still think Leo will get recognized for The Departed in this category (and if push comes to shove, I think it’s the right move), but you never know.
When the Golden Globes were announced, I figured Ken Watanabe’s performance in Letters From Iwo Jima would be the performance that prevented a Leo Vs. Leo from happening, but Watanabe’s heat has cooled a bit and Gosling is getting the stronger pub and push. I was kind of hoping (in vain) that Matt Damon’s subtle and nuanced performance in The Good Shepherd would get a little love, but it wasn’t in the cards. This also doesn’t bode well for Sacha Baron Cohen of Borat fame. It isn’t often that genius is recognized, though.
WHO WINS THE SAG AWARD? Forest Whitaker. He has won about 8 billion awards so far, but that’s not why I’m picking him. The reason he’s going to win is not only a powerful performance, but everyone loves the guy. He’s well respected by his peers as a fellow actor and a director.
Penelope Cruz – Volver
Judi Dench – Notes on a Scandal
Helen Mirren – The Queen
Meryl Streep – The Devil Wears Prada
Kate Winslet – Little Children
Dench, Cruz, Mirren and Streep are no-brainers. Those are the solid four. Winslet is the kinda-sorta-not-really-wild card. I thought for sure Jennifer Hudson would be nominated in the Leading Role category instead of Supporting but that is looking less and less likely with each passing day so I have some crow to eat. If Hudson does get nominated for Best Actress in a Leading Role, though, Winslet is the sacrificial lamb. If not, the great Kate is in easy.
WHO WINS THE SAG AWARD? Say it with me: Helen Mirren. She will not be denied. If anyone wants to stop her, they had better bring the heavy artillery.
Adriana Barraza – Babel
Cate Blanchett – Notes on a Scandal
Abigail Breslin – Little Miss Sunshine
Jennifer Hudson – Dreamgirls
Rinko Kikuchi – Babel
This is basically a mirror image of the Golden Globes with one exception: Abigail Breslin was nominated instead of Jennifer Blunt (for The Devil Wears Prada). Blunt was a surprising nomination (though a welcomed one in my book) and I’m pretty sure this is what the Oscar nominations will look like. Maggie Gyllenhaal’s World Trade Center chances are done. There’s really nothing else to say here so I will use this space to say … No, I got nothing.
WHO WINS THE SAG AWARD? Yawn, Jennifer Hudson
Alan Arkin – Little Miss Sunshine
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Departed
Jackie Earle Haley – Little Children
Djimon Hounsou – Blood Diamond
Eddie Murphy – Dreamgirls
I’m bummed there’s no Mark Whalberg nomination but I can’t say I was expecting it. It doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen with the Academy, though. Like I said before, I don’t see Leo being nominated in the Supporting category for this role, so that’s one empty slot right there. Jackie Earle Haley has had his share of vocal supporters since Little Children‘s release, but I’m not sold on his chances either. That’s at least two slots for Whalberg to sneak in and undermine the entire system as we know it.
Arkin wasn’t nominated for a Golden Globe but I do like his chances for an Oscar nom. People love the movie and he’s one of the best things in it. Djimon Honsou was also ignored by the Golden Globes (I have no explanation on how this could happen because, you know … he’s pretty good, people) but I don’t see him getting the same disrespect from the Academy.
I’d like to personally thank SAG for not nominating Jack Nicholson in The Departed. I liked him, he was good … but we don’t have to nominate him based on reputation alone.
Much to Brad’s chagrin, Murphy is clearly in the running for his third Donkey performance (and his fourth en route this year with Shrek The Third coming out this summer).
Brad Pitt not getting a Babel nod is very interesting. You would have to consider his chances seriously damaged. I still think if Babel gets nominated Best Picture, Pitt gets nominated. Otherwise, uh, he may not.
WHO WINS THE SAG AWARD? Leo wins it for The Departed. They have their cake.
Babel – (Paramount Vantage)
Bobby – (The Weinstein Company)
The Departed – (Warner Bros. Pictures)
Dreamgirls – (Paramount Pictures)
Little Miss Sunshine – (Fox Searchlight Pictures)
This is the category that sets the SAGs apart and there is one clear-cut winner as far as I’m concerned. First off, the nominations are very good. All of these movies had great ensemble casts and though I never caught Bobby, I’m going to assume my homey Laremy was right when he said the performances were strong. Babel had great emotional work, Sunshine great quirk. Dreamgirls had class and zip but no other movie had so many great actors firing on all cylinders the way The Departed did.
WHO WINS THE SAG AWARD? The Departed. Unless there is a major crack-smoking epidemic among actors I don’t know about.
