NOTE: An updated version of this article has just been published here.
As this year is the debut of our newest feature in RopeofSilicon’s Award Central, the Oscar Oracle competition, we thought we would make the 2005 Golden Globe Awards a little more interesting by taking a look at six major Oscar categories and compare them to their Golden Globe counterparts to see if we can actually use Sunday night’s Globe Awards as a good predictor for the Oscars.
Our evaluation covers the last ten years of Oscar awards versus the Golden Globes and will cover Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress… So let’s begin:
Best Supporting Actor is one category where you get a 50/50 shot at determining just who will win as over the past ten years the winners have been split as the Oscars and Golden Globe awards matched five out of the last ten years, but it is worthwhile to note that they have been right on for the past four years.
Unfortunately, just as the past four years have been spot on the five years spanning 1996-2000 where dead wrong until they finally found common ground again in Martin Landau‘s performance in Ed Wood in 1995.
As to whether this year’s Oscar will match the Golden Globes is going to be just as difficult to predict as the field is loaded with possibilities primarily centering around Thomas Haden Church for Sideways, Morgan Freeman for Million Dollar Baby, Jamie Foxx for Collateral, Clive Owen for Closer and David Carradine for Kill Bill: Volume 2.
While most predictions seem to be pointing toward Haden Church here, none of these five men should be counted out even though Foxx seems to be a long shot along with Owen and Carradine.
The Supporting Actress category doesn’t get much better than the Supporting Actor as four of the last ten years have matched up alternating years back to 1997 when finally in ’96 and ’95 the Globes and Oscars found common ground in Mira Sorvino and Dianne Wiest respectively.
Last year it was pretty much a no-brainer with Renée Zellweger in the driver’s seat for Cold Mountain, but this year may be another swing year as the field isn’t exactly clear cut.
Currently predictions seem to be pointing to Virginia Madsen for Sideways, but I would not count out Cate Blanchett for her amazing role in The Aviator as Katherine Hepburn or even Laura Linney for her highly praised part in Kinsey.
Rounding out this years noms is Natalie Portman for her part in Closer and Meryl Streep for The Manchurian Candidate.
Talk about a toss up when it comes to looking at the field and picking the best, and the Globe vs. Oscar predictor doesn’t fare much better as, just like the Supporting Actress category, the past six out of ten winners have matched up, but only last year matched out of the previous four as Peter Jackson took home both top prizes.
From 2001-2003 the Academy and Hollywood Foreign Press could not find common ground, but once again got their footing for three straight years from 1998-2000.
This year is poised to be extremely tight with Eastwood, Scorsese, Nichols, Forster and Payne all getting rave reviews for their films. However it is worthwhile to point out that while Martin Scorsese has won a Globe before, as recent as 2003 for Gangs of New York, but he has not taken home an Oscar yet. This may be a large determining factor in whether or not the director category matches up with my front runner for the Directing Oscar currently in Scorsese’s hands.
Finally our comparison begins to get better odds as seven of the past ten Oscar and Globe winners have matched up, with Halle Berry being the only exception in the past seven years with her Monster’s Ball surprise win in 2002, an Oscar that should be taken back after last year’s Catwoman.
Nevertheless, besides a couple of odd wins back in ’97 and ’98 it seems that out of the two separate winners at the Golden Globes we should expect to find our Oscar winner.
This year our front runners are certainly to be found in the drama category, except for Miss Winslet hanging out down in the musical and comedy category for her role in Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind.
Once again, back to our 50/50 chances as Best Actor seemed to be matching up nicely between 1995 and 1998, but in 1999 it hit a bit of a hiccup as the next five years would not find similarities between Globe and Oscar winners. From 1999-2003 the winners differed considerably, but Sean Penn got us back on track last year for his Mystic River win.
This year, however, finds a race as heated as any I have ever witnessed as a distinguished list of ten names grace the nominees and the winner is up-in-the-air in my opinion. I have listed them below; feel free to take your pick.
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY
Jim Carrey – Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind
Jamie Foxx – Ray
Paul Giamatti – Sideways
Kevin Kline – De-Lovely
Kevin Spacey – Beyond the Sea
BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Javier Bardem – The Sea Inside
Don Cheadle – Hotel Rwanda
Johnny Depp – Finding Neverland
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Aviator
Liam Neeson – Kinsey
Finally to the top prize, and our most clearly matched category yet as Best Picture has matched up nine out of the past ten years, with, get this, a difference only found in 1996 when Braveheart took home the Oscar and Sense and Sensibility and Babe took home the Globes. Yeah, Sense and Sensibility beat out Braveheart, go figure.
Nevertheless, there is a 90% chance, based on the last ten years, that the winner of either the Drama or Musical and Comedy categories at this Sunday’s Golden Globes is going to bring home the Oscar in February.
The frontrunners for the prize have got to be Sideways, Million Dollar Baby and The Aviator, but with such an awesome group of pictures any one of them could come out of the pack.
With those categories covered take a quick look below at the number of Oscars that went to the same Golden Globe winner based on the past 20 years:
Best Supporting Actor: 11 of the last 20 Globe winners won the Oscar.
Best Supporting Actress: 10 of the last 20 Globe winners won the Oscar.
Best Actor: 11 of the last 20 Globe winners won the Oscar.
Best Actress: 15 of the last 20 Globe winners won the Oscar.
Best Picture: 17 of the last 20 Globe winners won the Oscar.
To check out the full list of Golden Globe nominees click here, and for a printable ballot to make your predictions on and keep with you while you watch the show USA Today has one right here.
