The Weekend Warrior: Hot Pursuit, The D-Train

Just like last week was all about how much Avengers: Age of Ultron might make and whether it would set a new opening weekend record (Spoiler! It didn’t), this weekend is all about how much it will drop in the second weekend and whether it will drop more than Avengers three years ago. We’re positive it will have a bigger drop and won’t be able to beat the $103 million second weekend for that movie, although it should still hold onto the #1 spot for a second weekend with relative ease.

But it’s not all about Avengers: Age of Ultron even if it will pretty much dominate for a second weekend in a row, and there is a wide release with high-profile stars entering the market as well as a lower-key release.

Hot Pursuit

Distributor: New Line/MGM/Warner Bros.

Director: Anne Fletcher (The Proposal, 27 Dresses, Step Up)

Writer: David Feeney, John Quaintance

Cast: Reese Witherspoon, Sofia Vergara, Richard T. Jones, Rob Kazinsky, John Carroll Lynch

Genre: Action, Comedy

What It’s About: Reese Witherspoon plays Cooper, a by-the-books police officer assigned to protect the widow of a drug boss, played by Sofia Vergara, as they race across Texas pursued by crooked cops and assassins.

Benefits:

Reese Witherspoon has repeatedly proven her worth as a box office draw with hits like Sweet Home Alabama, Walk the Line (for which she won an Oscar) and Four Christmases, all of which grossed more than $100 million. Her most recent film, Wild, grossed $37 million while getting her a second Oscar nomination, although her other two 2014 releases, The Good Lie and P.T. Anderson’s Inherent Vice—both in which she played more of a supporting role–didn’t fare as well. Even so, Hot Pursuit, which she also produced, is more along the lines of what her female fans expect from her in terms of humor, so it should bring out some of her regular fans.

As seen with Paul Feig’s The Heat which teamed Sandra Bullock and Melissa McCarthy a few years back, there’s definitely a market for a buddy action-comedy like this. There’s also a pretty good pedigree for these types of films from the classic Thelma and Louise to 48 Hours to Midnight Run. While normally a genre targeted towards men, it’s obvious that women also like to laugh and be entertained and having a more female-friendly comedy like this will give them something to see in theaters.

This acts as counterprogramming to Avengers: Age of Ultron and Furious 7, which have brought in women just by default of there not being much else in theaters. Even Age of Adaline did decently because of this lack of female-friendly films.

Anne Fletcher has proven to be a great purveyor of hit movies geared towards women with movies like The Proposal, starring Sandra Bullock and Ryan Reynolds, and 27 Dresses, starring Kathryn Heigl. Her last movie The Guilt Trip, which paired Seth Rogen with Barbra Streisand, didn’t fare as well, maybe because it was released on a busy Christmas weekend, but she still has proven her mettle as a director who can produce hits.

Drawbacks:

Sofia Vergara has become hugely popular thanks to her Emmy-nominated role on ABC’s “Modern Family,” although that hasn’t necessarily translated to the box office where she’s appeared in a mixed bag of films including Jon Favreau’s Chef, Robert Rodriguez’s Machete Kills, and John Turturo’s Fading Gigolo. One might hope that she could bring in the Latino audience, but so far her presence hasn’t done much to get anyone into theaters so pairing her with Reese probably won’t do much to help.

This film seems to be coming out with very little fanfare with Warner Bros. starting their marketing campaign later than they should have only coming up with a title a few months ago. What they ended up with for a title is incredibly generic and not even close to as great as the original title “Don’t Mess with Texas” which would guarantee huge business in, where else? Texas.

Trying to appeal to women with an action-comedy like The Heat is a risky venture and this movie hasn’t done much to try to sell them on the concept of Reese and Sofia on the run together. There will be very little interest in this movie among guys even though they normally would drive business for this genre. This may sound dumb, but this might not be the best time to release a movie about a police officer due to all the conflict and tension going on in America right now when it comes to the boys in blue. True, this is a comedy, but it’s hard not to wonder whether this is a bad time for a comedy about a police officer.

Prediction:

While this has the opportunity to really break out, being one of the few comedies geared towards women in theaters, it’s more likely to end up opening below $20 million, probably in the high teens, and it’s hard to think it will be able to hold up against next week’s Pitch Perfect 2 so $45 to 50 million will probably be its cap.

Hot Pursuit Review (Coming Soon!)

The D-Train

Distributor: IFC Films

Writer/Directors: Jarrad Paul, Andrew Mogel

Cast: James Marsden, Jack Black, Jeffrey Tambor, Mike White, Nat Faxon, Kathryn Hahn, Henry Zebrowski, Kyle Bornheimer, Adria Tennor, Russell Posner

What It’s About: Jack Black plays Dan Landsman who is preparing for his high school reunion when he spots an old classmate named Oliver Lawless (James Marsden) on TV and travels from Pittsburgh to L.A. to try to convince Oliver to come to the reunion. After a drunken night of partying together, Oliver does come back to Pittsburgh, now harboring a dark secret he uses to manipulate those around Dan.

Rather than doing the usual analysis of benefits vs. drawbacks, I’m just going to pose the question of how on earth IFC Films, who has rarely released a movie in wide release, thinks they can get this Jack Black and James Marsden vehicle out to the masses in wide release from the get-go?

The D-Train premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to mixed reviews, but IFC saw the potential in it to pick it up for distribution and they decided that they may as well try to give the movie a wide release right off the bat rather than doing the usual platform release with expansion that worked so well with last year’s Boyhood. Maybe they realize that the subject matter and especially a pivotal plot point may ultimately turn moviegoers off once word gets out about the movie so they want to make as much money they can opening weekend.

This one probably won’t open with more than $2 million although it might do well enough to break into the bottom of the Top 10, which will be all that matters in terms of raising awareness.

My Thoughts….

While I missed this movie at Sundance and didn’t get the general bump that seeing the movie with a festival audience brings, it’s still a bit of a headscratcher, because there were so many better (and worse) movies at this year’s Sundance and it’s odd that this would be one of the first ones to see the light of day.

Much of it comes down to the fact that the movie just doesn’t have a very good premise and even the shocking twist that sets up everything that happens after that is more disturbing (and not in a good way) than exciting. Basically, Jack Black plays a guy in a small suburb trying to organize his high school reunion who realizes that getting his old classmate Oliver (Marsden), who is in a major national commercial, to attend would convince more of his classmates to attend. He goes to L.A. to convince Oliver and ends up having a wild night of debauchery that doesn’t end as either one planned.

I generally like Jack Black when he’s not going overboard with his performances and in this one he really takes his schtick too far. Similarly, James Marsden, who generally can do no wrong in my book, gives a fairly bland performance as Dan’s adversary. Then you have such a great cast around them, the likes of Jeffrey Tambor and Kathryn Hahn and Mike White and Nat Faxon (the latter two both great filmmakers in their own right), who are generally being underused.

While the movie has some fun moments, it ultimately never delivers on the premise because the filmmakers seem afraid of taking things too far, and instead of trying to get the biggest laughs, the movie muddles along and generally falls flat.

Rating: 6 out of 10

The other movie that’s expanding wider and could possibly do well enough to break into the Top 10 is Fox Seachlight’s Far from the Madding Crowd, a costume drama starring Carey Mulligan, Matthias Schoenarts, Michael Sheen and Tom Sturridge which grossed $170,000 last weekend, but it will really have to expand into 1,000 or more theaters for that to be considered a possibility, and it may need a few more weeks to build up enough buzz for that sort of expansion to be worth it.

This Weekend Last Year

This Week’s Updated Predictions

Update: Not too many changes although we’ll give Hot Pursuit a higher prediction due to a higher theater count and also, Mother’s Day being on Sunday (and that will probably be one of the choices). Apparently, Ex Machina is expanding even wider into 2,000 theaters so it should be able to hold seventh place against the newcomer, The D-Train.

1. Avengers: Age of Ultron (Marvel Studios/Disney) – $85.5 million -55%

2. Hot Pursuit (New Line/MGM/WB) – $16.6 million N/A (up 1.6 million)

3. Furious 7 (Universal) – $3.6 million -45%

4. The Age of Adaline (Summit/Lionsgate) – $3.5 million -44%

5. Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 (Sony) – $3.5 million -40%

6. Home (DreamWorks Animation/Fox) – $2.4 million -30%

7. Ex Machina (A24) – $2.0 million -13% (up 1.8 million)

8. The D-Train (IFC Films) – $1.8 million N/A

9. Cinderella (Disney) – $1.5 million -45% (down .1 million)

10. Woman in Gold (The Weinstein Company) – $1.0 million -35%

Next Week:

It’s the battle of the sexes as men are offered George Miller’s return to the ‘80s action franchise Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros.), now starring Tom Hardy and Charlize Theron, while the Barden Bellas are back in the musical comedy Pitch Perfect 2 (Universal), once again starring Anna Kendrick and Rebel Wilson, and this time directed by their co-star Elizabeth Banks.

This Week’s Must-Sees

Another great doc that opens at the IFC Center (on Friday) after playing at last year’s Doc-NYC is…

The Seven Five (Sundance Selects)

Director: Tiller Russell

Stars: Michael Dowd

Genre: Documentary

What It’s About: A documentary about a corrupt New York police officer named Michael Dowd, who got dragged into the New York drug trade during the ‘80s, as he looks back at his career and all the things he witnessed. A dramatic feature based on Dowd is in the works, being developed by Yann Demange, director of ’71.

1001 Grams (Kino Lorber)

Writer/Director: Bent Hamer

Stars: Laurent Stocker, Ane Dahl Torp, Hildegun Riise, Stein Winge

Genre: Drama

What It’s About: Norway’s submission for the Oscars comes from the filmmaker behind Kitchen Stories and O’Horten, this one about a scientist named Marie who attends in a seminar in Paris to argue the weight of a kilo and ends up dealing with her own issues while there.

Other Limited Releases of Note:

Maggie (Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions)

Director: Henry Hobson

Stars: Abigail Breslin, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Joely Richardson

Genre: Drama, Horror, Thriller

What It’s About: When a virus hits earth turning the infected into zombies, a father (Schwarzenegger) must contend with his teen daughter Maggie (Breslin) going through the awful conditions that take a person over after contracting the disease and how it affects their family as she goes through horrifying changes. It’s given a limited release

5 Flights Up (Focus World)

Director: Richard Loncraine

Stars: Morgan Freeman, Diane Keaton, Cynthia Nixon

Genre: Comedy

What It’s About: Morgan Freeman and Diane Keaton play Alex and Ruth, a couple who have been together for four decades, having moved to a walk-up in Brooklyn near the Williamsburg Bridge after getting married which they’re now being pressured to sell while they look for a new place to live.

Playing It Cool (Vertical Entertainment)

Director: Justin Reardon

Stars: Chris Evans, Michelle Monaghan, Aubrey Plaza, Anthony Mackie, Philip Baker Hall, Giovanni Ribisi, Luke Wilson

Genre: Romance

What It’s About: Chris Evans and Michelle Monaghan star in this romantic film about a young man who meets a beautiful engaged woman at a charity dinner pretending to be a philanthropist, as he tries to win her heart.

Bravetown (Entertainment One)

Director: Daniel Duran

Stars: Josh Duhamel, Kherington Payne, Lucas Till, Laura Dern, Maria Bello

Genre: Drama

What It’s About: Lucas Till (X-Men: First Class) plays Josh Harvest, a hardened New York teen and a top dance club DJ is sentenced to rehab after an arrest and forced to live with his estranged father (Duhamel) in a small town in North Dakota where he joins the dance team to try to win a state competition.

Winning: The Racing Life of Paul Newman (Filmbuff)

Directors: Adam Carolla, Nate Adams

Stars: Paul Newman, Tom Cruise, Robert Redford, Robert Wagner, Patrick Dempsey, Joanne Woodward

Genre: Documentary, Sports

What It’s About: Adam Carolla’s second movie of the year as a director is this documentary about Oscar-winning actor Paul Newman’s passion for race car driving that led him to four national champions as a driver and eight more as an owner. It opens in select cities and On Demand.

Hunting Elephants (XLrator Media)

Director: Reshef Levi

Stars: Gil Blank, Sasson Gabai, Moni Moshonov, Yael Abecassis, Patrick Stewart,

Genre: Comedy

What It’s About: This Israeli caper comedy about 12-year-old Jonathan (Gil Blank), the son of a security guard who is called upon by two shady older men who want to use the boy to rob a bank, knowing that his father told him the security codes before dying.

Skin Trade (Magnet Releasing)

Director: Ekachai Uekrongtham

Stars: Dolph Lundgren,Tony Jaa, Ron Perlman, Michael Jai White, Peter Weller, Celina Jade

Genre: Action, Thriller

What It’s About: Dolph Lundgren co-wrote and stars in this action flick, playing New Jersey detective Nick Cassidy who goes to Bangkok to team with Thai detective Tony Jaa’sTony Vitayakui to go after a drug trafficking kingpin (Ron Perlman) whose son Nick accidentally killed causing the crime boss to seek vengeance.

Saint Laurent (Sony Pictures Classics)

Director: Bertrand Bonello

Stars: Gaspard Ulliel, Louis Garrel, Jérémie Renier, Amira Casar, Lea Seydoux, Aymeline Valade, Helmut Berger

Genre: Drama

What It’s About: Gaspard Ulliel plays iconic fashion designer Yves Saint Laurent in this biopic that follows meeting his lover and business partner Pierre Bergé (Jérémie Renier) in 1958 through his illustrious career throughout the late ‘60s and ‘70s. It’ll be released in New York and L.A. nearly a year after its premiere at Cannes.

Preggoland (Gravitas Ventures)

Director: Jacob Tierney

Stars: Sonja Bennett, Danny Trejo, James Caan

Genre: Comedy

What It’s About: Sonja Bennett co-wrote and stars in this comedy about a woman named Ruth who pretends to be pregnant after causing trouble at a baby shower, and finds herself falling for her boss who wants to raise her “child” as his own.

The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared (Music Box Films)

Director: Felix Herngren

Stars: Robert Gustafsson, Iwar Wiklander, David Wiberg

Genre: Comedy

What It’s About: The latest from Swedish filmmaker is best on Jonas Jonasson’s novel about a 100-year-old man (Swedish comedian Robert Gustafsson) who decides it’s never too late to start over as he goes on an amazing “Forrest Gump”-like journey, playing a key role in important events.

Infini (Vertical Entertainment)

Director: Shane Abbess

Stars: Luke Ford, Daniel MacPherson, Luke Hemsworth, Grace Huang, Bren Foster, Dwaine Stevenson

Genre: Science Fiction, Action

What It’s About: The third Hemsworth brother is part of the ensemble playing a search and rescue team who are set on a mission into deep space to retriever the survivor of a biological outbreak in a mining colony.

You can post any comments or questions below, or you can get in touch with the Weekend Warrior on Twitter.