The Weekend Warrior’s 2015 Summer Box Office Preview

2015 SUMMER BOX OFFICE PREVIEW

It’s that time of year again as the box office hits its busy season for tentpoles, sequels and maybe even a few surprises, and as usual, The Weekend Warrior is here to go through all of what the summer offers and figure out which ones will end up being the breakout hits of the summer and which ones will barely get noticed. 

We spent most of last week at CinemaCon seeing what the studios had to offer in the coming months, and there’s a lot of movies that are already on moviegoers’ radars, but also smaller movies that have barely started their marketing campaigns.

You may have noticed that ComingSoon.net has already posted another summer movie preview which will give you a good idea of what’s coming out, but here, you’ll get a little more opinion not only of what looks good but what could connect with audiences, which movies shouldn’t be missed and which ones are likely to be passed over. 

(Note: As with the normal Weekend Warrior column, most of the numbers and predictions are for domestic gross, since it’s almost impossible to predict other countries’ box office takes without having nearly as much information available in advance.)

THE HEAVY-HITTERS

Last summer, seven movies grossed over $200 million but only one movie grossed more than $300 million, Marvel Studios’ Guardians of the Galaxy, but last year was also considered to be a down summer. This year, it could be similarly top-loaded to a couple of movies that will almost definitely gross $200 million domestically with some of them looking to gross $300 million or more.

Obviously, the biggest movie of the summer will be Avengers: Age of Ultron (Marvel Studios/Disney – May 1), the sequel to Marvel’s $1.5 billion worldwide-grossing Marvel’s The Avengers. That movie opened on the same summer kick-off weekend in 2012 to set a new box office opening record with $207.4 million and you can bet that the sequel, once again directed by Joss Whedon, will be trying to beat that seemingly insurmountable record. When you take the already popular superheroes and throw in newcomers like Quicksilver, the Scarlet Witch, The Vision and bad guy Ultron, not to mention a fairly weak April for movies, there’s a good chance this will top its predecessor at least opening weekend. It will probably end up with close to $500 million domestic, benefitting from being one of the first movies out of the gate. (We’ll have more about its box office prospects in this week’s Weekend Warrior column.)

After fourteen years away, the franchise created by Steven Spielberg around a Michael Crichton novel returns with Jurassic World (Universal – June 12), which teams the super-hot Chris Pratt (of the aforementioned hit Guardians of the Galaxy) with relatively new director Colin Trevorrow (Safety Not Guaranteed) to create a big return to the franchise with new dino perils. While there’s a certain nostalgia factor among moviegoers for the original Jurassic Park that will drive business, that movie and it sequel The Lost World—both box office blockbusters in their day—have gained millions of fans worldwide since they were in theaters which has created an even bigger fanbase for this return. This is likely to be one of the movies to open this summer with more than $100 million as people flock to see it, even without a holiday to bolster its business, and it shouldn’t be too surprising if this ends up being one of the movies to gross $300 million domestic this summer.

The spin-off to the hit animated features Despicable Me and its even bigger 2013 sequel Despicable Me 2, Minions (Universal – July 10) looks to tell the origins of the lovable yellow henchman, but other than a Super Bowl spot, it hasn’t built up too much buzz just yet. There’s no denying their popularity so this should do better than other animated spin-offs such as Penguins of Madagascar and Puss in Boots. The last Despicable Me movie grossed $368 million domestic and nearly a billion worldwide and one can expect that this will be just as popular although it may fall just short of that amount.

After taking a year off, Pixar Animation Studios is back with Inside Out (Disney•Pixar – June 19), the latest from Oscar-winning Up director Pete Docter, and while it’s a tougher sell than other Pixar movies, being about emotions personified, it has a great comedic cast that includes Amy Poehler and Bill Hader that should help sell the premise and the characters both to kids and adults. In this case, not being a sequel will definitely help it in a summer full of them. Once word gets out how good the movie is, it should continue to bring in business over the rest of summer, especially as schools let out and there’s more of a family audience, although it will only have a few weeks before Minions will steal some of its thunder.

Tom Cruise has had an amazing comeback in recent years, most notably by his return to the Mission: Impossible franchise in 2011 with the Brad Bird-directed fourth movie Mission: Impossible Ghost Protocol, which became the second-highest grossing movie in the series with $209 million. Cruise’s Ethan Hunt is back for Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation (Paramount – July 31), this time teaming him with his frequent collaborator Christopher McQuarrie (Jack Reacher), and it’s been moved to a late summer release from its original holiday date in hopes it can surpass that amount. It should come close. 

Two movies that have potential to be big but also have things working against them are Terminator Genisys (Paramount – July 1), Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to the franchise that helped make him famous, and George Miller’s Mad Max: Fury Road (Warner Bros. – May 15), which returns the director to his own popular franchise after thirty years, this time with Tom Hardy in the title role. Both movies have the namebrand value of a good franchise that will bring older males into theaters, although they also have some question marks in terms of whether they can live up to the originals. There’s a fanboy factor to both movies, but as we know, fanboys can be fickle especially when it comes to trying to reinvent the wheel. Terminator Genisys seems more likely to come close to the $200 million mark, mainly thanks to its plum 4th of July release, although it also has to live down the last attempt Terminator Salvation, which failed to make waves with just $125 million domestic. It also has a lot more competition in July to keep it from holding onto business if audiences like it.

INTERESTING SUMMER SEQUELS

As one can tell above, summer is the best time to roll out big sequels but this summer, there are three sequels to surprise sleeper hits that hope to capitalize on the popularity and success of their earlier installations.

The second major sequel after Avengers: Age of Ultron is Pitch Perfect 2 (Universal – May 15), the return of Anna Kendrick, Rebel Wilson and the Barden Bellas, the collegiate a capella group that got the country excited about a capella again. The original movie grossed $65 million domestic after a $5.2 million limited opening in late September 2012, but it went on to become a huge cult hit thanks to cable and home video that has gotten more women and girls excited about the sequel. Directed by Elizabeth Banks, one can expect the sequel to open huge as all the fans of the original movie rush out opening weekend, and it could be one of the surprise hits of the early summer.

In the summer of 2012, “Family Guy” creator Seth MacFarlane transitioned into movies with his R-rated anthropomorphic comedy Ted, which clicked with a wide variety of moviegoers to the tune of $219 million after a $54.4 million opening. Three years later, the sequel Ted 2 (Universal – June 26) hopes to bring those same fans into theaters with its combination of raunchy humor and Mark Wahlberg. The Hangover Part II is a good example of how a sequel to a R-rated blockbuster comedy can do similarly big business although some might wonder whether MacFarlane’s 2014 bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West may have put off some of his fans.

As coincidence would have it, the original Magic Mike opened against the original Ted, taking in $39 million for a solid second place, but fortunately, the release of their sequels has been spaced out with Magic Mike XXL  (Warner Bros. – July 1) putting Channing Tatum and friends back into next to nothing to help bring in the sequel’s lascivious female audience. The sequel is taking on Terminator Genisys as counter-programming over 4th of July and should be able to have an equally strong showing as the original.

THE SUMMER’S OTHER SUPERHEROES 

All eyes are on how well Avengers: Age of Ultron will do this summer, but that doesn’t mean it’s the only superhero game in town, and two very different superhero movies will try to bring in moviegoers later in the season. 

Announced by Marvel almost nine years ago, the tiniest Avenger (who doesn’t actually appear in the Avengers movies) Ant-Man (Marvel Studios/Disney – July 17) gets his own movie with Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas starring. This one may be Marvel Studios’ biggest gamble to date, even when compared to last year’s Guardians of the Galaxy, which surprised everyone by becoming the biggest movie of last summer, maybe because the movie would never have been made if not for director Edgar Wright, who bailed on the project last year over creative differences. Instead, they have director Peyton Reed, best known for Bring It On and comedies like Jim Carrey’s Yes Man. The director of the movie shouldn’t be that big a deal, but it has put quite an onus on the movie to be as strong as other Marvel movies, and it’s spent the year so far in Age of Ultron’s shadow. The movie should still perform, but it’s not likely to get the usual Marvel bump and will probably end up closer to the grosses of the first Thor and Captain America movies.

Directed by Josh Trank (Chronicle), Fantastic Four (20^th Century Fox – August 7) relaunches Marvel’s original superhero team, trying to overcome the obstacles of the previous two attempts with a fresh, new and younger cast in Miles Teller, Michael B. Jordan, Jamie Bell and Kate Mara. Fox has done decently with their superhero franchises so far, mostly capitalizing on their popularity from the comics and cartoons, and that should be the case here as well as the namebrand of the group should bring moviegoers into theaters, even the skeptical fanboys who think only Marvel should be making Marvel movies. The two previous movies made $155 million and $132 million, respectively (barely breaking even on their production costs), but eight years has passed and a lot has changed in terms of the popularity of superhero movies, so this should be able to do bigger business with a late summer release.

SUMMER SLEEPERS & SURPRISES

As much as the summer is about sequels and franchises, often the movies that do the best business and the ones that surprise are the ones that offer something new to moviegoers they haven’t seen before.

A lot of the buzz surrounding Tomorrowland (Disney – May 22), Brad Bird’s action adventure starring George Clooney and Britt Robertson, has been built around how well they’ve kept what the movie is about a secret. More has been revealed in recent months, making it look like a solid sci-fi and fantasy adventure loosely based around the popular DisneyWorld land that should be one of the first choices over Memorial Day weekend. Unfortunately, buzz seems to have waned in recent months the more that has been revealed, but Disney should kick up the marketing soon and Bird has a great track record that should help with the film’s word-of-mouth business.

In 2013, director Paul Feig reteamed with his Bridesmaids star Melissa McCarthy, teaming her with Sandra Bullock for The Heat, which turned into a huge hit that grossed $159 million domestic. They’re going for a threepeat with Spy (20th Century Fox – June 5), a comedy in which McCarthy plays Susan Cooper, a CIA desk person who gets her chance to go out into the field. With a great cast that includes Rose Byrne (also from Bridesmaids), Jude Law, Jason Statham and more, the film has already been a huge hit at its premiere at South by SouthWest and at CinemaCon, so word of mouth should drive it to being one of the top R-rated comedies of the summer.

That one should bring in a solid female audience right up until the release of Judd Apatow’s latest, Trainwreck (Universal – July 17), starring one of the hottest comics around, Amy Schumer, in her first leading role. Schumer’s Comedy Central show Inside Amy Schumer returned last week with a huge bang and she’s bigger than ever, and this comedy about a woman who can’t get her life together should appeal greatly to her fans and women in general. It should offer some nice counter-programming to the late summer movies at a time when audiences are getting tired of sequels. 

While Adam Sandler’s star has been on the decline in recent years, things should definitely pick up for him with the release of Pixels (Sony – July 24), the Chris Columbus-directed movie about aliens invading earth in the guise of video games that looks more than a little bit like Ghostbusters. The popularity of old school video games, especially among older males, helped Disney have a huge hit with Wreck-It Ralph and that same love should get a much larger audience into seats than other Sandler films.

One might think that remaking a classic comedy from the ‘80s may not be a great idea, but Vacation (New Line – July 31) isn’t as much a remake as a direct sequel with Ed Helms from The Hangover playing Chevy Chase’s son Rusty all grown up. Originally meant to open in October, the movie got shifted against Mission: Impossible Rogue Nation a few weeks back, but the first Red Band trailer played very well at CinemaCon last week, and it should be able to act as a solid follow-up to Trainwreck as audiences continue to look for late-summer laughs, which has led to previous hits like We’re the Millers and The Wedding Crashers (both from New Line).

A relatively small film, Max (Warner Bros. – June 26), is a rare movie to appeal to doglovers, something we haven’t gotten in quite some time, and it could offer an alternative to the bigger budget studio animated movies with its placement directly between Inside Out and Minions.

The Sundance hit Dope (Open Road – June 19) from Rick Famuyiwa is one of the few films this summer that is directly targeting African-American audiences as it combines Boyz in the Hood with the “Friday” movies, a mix of hip hop and humor that we don’t often get to see in theaters these days.

That same audience will be part of the target audience for Straight Outta Compton (Universal – August 14), the NWA biopic that will hope to find a similar audience as the 2009 Big E. Smalls biopic Notorious or even be bigger, like Eminem’s 8 Mile. Its late summer release date may limit its long-term, legs but it should do decently against weaker fare.

SUMMER HORROR OFFERINGS

The success of James Wan’s The Conjuring a few summers back has led to more studios trying to take advantage of the lack of scares during the summer to entice avid horror fans into theaters. This idea backfired last summer when Deliver Us From Evil only grossed $30 million, but they’re trying again with four horror movies.

Horror remakes have been noticeably absent from theaters for the past couple of years, so it’s odd that they finally got around to remaking the popular ‘80s horror film Poltergeist (20th Century Fox- May 22), which is being launched over Memorial Day weekend. Fox had a huge hit back in 2006 with their remake of The Omen, but a lot of that was due to its 6/6/06 release date, and it’s hard to imagine this will do much business after bringing in curious moviegoers due to the well-known name brand.

Focus Features are releasing two anticipated horror sequels produced by Blumhouse with Insidious Chapter 3 coming out on June 5 and Sinister 2 out in late August. The former has a definite advantage and the most promise, being a sequel to the James Wan-directed Insidious Chapter 2, which grossed $83 million a few months after The Conjuring. Ironically, those films were hugely inspired by the original Poltergeist, and the third chapter should do well even with Wan replaced in the director’s chair by his long-time collaborator Leigh Whannell. Sinister 2’s late August release and the entirely new cast and director might make it a harder sell.

Blumhouse Pictures is also behind The Gallows (Warner Bros. – July 10), one of the weaker horror offerings that probably won’t have to make too much money to be profitable, although it is the summer horror release from New Line, who were able to turn The Conjuring into such a huge summer hit.

THE QUESTIONABLE AND THE UKNOWN

A bunch of the movies listed above can go either way, but Warner Bros. definitely seem to have a number of movies that fit into that category because they have a lot of movies this summer, some of which are likely to bomb, while others might surprise everyone. For instance, the “Thelma and Louise” homage Hot Pursuit (May 8), starring Reese Witherspoon and Sofia Vergara, kicks off Warner Bros.’ summer with what looks to be their usual second-weekend-of-May dog, but then there’s movies like Guy Ritchie’s The Man From U.N.C.L.E. (August 14), which has been moved around so much before seemingly being dumped in a less-than-ideal mid-August release. Dwayne Johnson’s earthquake movie San Andreas (May 29) certainly looks like it could be a big screen summer spectacle like the movies of Roland Emmerich and Michael Bay, but will it get lost in the shuffle of the tentpoles? And who knows whether fans of HBO’s Entourage (June 6) will be interested enough in those characters to shell out $8 to 10 or more to see those characters on the big screen?

Obviously, this is going to be an interesting summer, and we’ll be talking more about all of the movies in the regular Weekend Warrior column as they’re released. In the meantime, you can check out the Weekend Warrior’s predictions for the summer’s Top 15 movies in the gallery below. At a glance, it surely looks like Disney and Universal Pictures will end up being the two big winners of the summer.