As the 2024 presidential race heats up, new polling data from October 4 for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump has drawn significant interest. With the race remaining close, the latest numbers highlight key divides among voters. These insights are essential for understanding both national momentum and the dynamics in pivotal battleground states as the election approaches.
Here’s a breakdown of the recent polling and what it could mean for both candidates heading into Election Day.
Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump Poll Results for October 4
As of October 4, 2024, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by 3.7% in national polls. Harris is polling at 49.9%, while Trump stands at 46.2%, according to The Hill.
Recent national polls highlight close competition. An ActiVote poll (September 26 – October 3) shows Harris leading by 1 point, with 50.7% to Trump’s 49.3%. Meanwhile, an Emerson College Poll (September 30 – October 2) places Harris 2 points ahead, polling at 50.2% compared to Trump’s 48.6%. However, data from Rasmussen Reports (September 27 – October 3) shows Trump leading by 2 points, at 49% to Harris’ 47%.
State polls show tight contests in key battlegrounds. In Arizona, Trump has a slim 0.8% lead based on 39 polls. InsiderAdvantage and Emerson College indicate Trump ahead by 1 to 4 points. Similarly, in Florida, Trump leads by 2.4%. Public Policy Polling and McLaughlin & Associates show a 4 to 5-point advantage for him.
In Pennsylvania, Harris leads by 0.8%. Emerson College places her 1 point ahead, while The Trafalgar Group reports Trump up by 2 points. Michigan is also closely contested, with Harris leading by just 0.2%. However, The Trafalgar Group shows Trump with a 2-point advantage.
In Wisconsin, Harris holds a 1.3% lead, with The New York Times/Siena College and ActiVote polls showing her ahead by 1 to 2 points, but The Trafalgar Group reports Trump up by 1 points. Georgia remains in Trump’s favor, where he leads by 0.7%, with Quinnipiac University showing him ahead by 5 points. Nevada leans toward Harris, where she holds a 1.9% lead, supported by AtlasIntel and TIPP Insight.
Harris maintains a 4.9% lead over Trump in New Hampshire based on three polls. Data from the University of New Hampshire (August 16–20) shows Harris at 52% and Trump at 47%, a 5-point difference, consistent with Emerson College‘s data showing Harris ahead by 5 points.
Trump leads Harris by 0.8% in North Carolina, based on 42 polls. Recent data from InsiderAdvantage and Quinnipiac University (September 26–30) show Trump ahead by 1 to 3 points, with The Washington Post placing him 3 points ahead.
With both candidates neck and neck in national and state polls, the 2024 presidential race remains highly competitive. Swing states such as Arizona, Florida, Pennsylvania, and Michigan will be critical in determining the final outcome, making every percentage point count.
