It should come as no surprise that Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation is my predicted winner this weekend – the last one was in 2011 and this is the summer’s grand action finale. The problem with looking at the previous version is it had a soft opening during the Christmas season, putting up weekends of 12/29/29/19 – meaning its results bore no real resemblance to how a summer film operates. I’m reluctant to just pile that $89 million four-weekend total into a big ball, because there were clearly still early adopters and stragglers over the course of a month. As such, my prediction of $51 million sort of middles the whole enterprise, condensing four Christmas weekends down into two summer ones.
Vacation is the other new release, but there’s not much precedent to go on, even with it being a sort of sequel. The closest comparison is really just “comedy” here, so I’ve decided to slot it in right alongside We’re the Millers. It’s rated R, which certainly won’t help, and I don’t think it has the demographic pull of Trainwreck, which opened at $30 million. I’m pegging this Chevy Chase wannabe at $25 million, though admittedly there’s a lot of wiggle room in either direction.
Pixels flopped around like a flounder last weekend, ruining my prediction for it to take the top slot. I don’t see better news on the horizon here, a tepid $11.5 million putting the final nail in this unloved CGI-fest. At least the production budget was only $88 million? Grasping at straws over here.
Finally, the much maligned Southpaw (well, by myself and Brad at least). It won’t face a huge decline — I’m saying $8.5 million this weekend — because no one came to see it in the first place. It goes to show that mid-major films that don’t do anything fun or different end up getting hammered, it’s one of the reasons 2014 had the fewest movie tickets sold in 20 years. When the options are $20 to see a “C+” film or $15 a month to see “unlimited” films at your house the choice is pretty clear. The whole thing is sad, because there was a real film in here, but it just got bogged down.
That’s all I’ve got for now, it’s your turn, predictions away!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
