Fifty Shades of Grey is going to hit the box office like a prize fighter this weekend, scooping up on girl’s nights all around the country. Clearly, it is a horrible movie, though it’s just as clear that the domestic market (ahem) yearns for it. The comparables here seem to be the all of the Twilight Saga, but the first one especially. $80 million is my call, very high, yes, but there’s every reason to bet on this film and not many reasons to bet against. Yeah, it’s R rated, but it skews older in the demo as well. It’s going to crush all in its path.
Kingsmen: The Secret Service is a nice little film, but I don’t think it’s commercially viable. The trailers look action-y and fun, but this isn’t a crowd-pleaser in the traditional sense, much as with Kick-Ass and Layer Cake. $25 million may be kind, but I’m cheering for this one, and that always lends a little bias.
The SpongeBob Movie: Sponge Out of Water clearly surprised us last weekend, but it won’t sneak up on me again. I like a number around $38.5 million, a nice holdover, and being the only family game in town helps. I’ve heard from a few parents that they went, hated it, but it was for the kids. Throwing a second weekend up against two wide R-rated films was very clever.
Jupiter Ascending is doomed. Made for too much money, domestically sinking like a stone, it will all come down to international dollars and … lunch boxes? Do people still have those? Regardless, I’m very sad I have this film in the box office draft for winter, it’s looking like another loss for ol’ Uncle Laremy.
Are we in for another Twilight style weekend? How high you gonna go? Your turn!
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
