Nightcrawler will hit a nice sweet spot this weekend, not exactly a horror, but scary enough to attract date nights as well. Halloween generally doesn’t fall so nicely on a weekend, the last time it was close (and probably slightly better) was when Michael Jackson’s This is It took the crown, even though Halloween was on a Saturday. Paranormal Activity couldn’t beat it, though it was in its 6th weekend of release, and Saw VI was pretty much DOA in its sophomore weekend. My thought here is $13.8 million, enough to win the weekend, though clearly not dominating in any fashion. There are too many other themed choices on the board. Speaking of …
Before I Go to Sleep – I’ll present this fact without any judgment, but at the last moment they canceled all critic’s screenings. I wonder what kind of sign that is? Still, it’s not like it really needs good reviews because it’s the new thriller on the block (not a holdover or re-release). The general public still favors new things, though clearly not by very much, bringing this one home at $8.5 million.
Ouija is going to face a punishing dip this weekend, maybe one of the worst wide-release drops of all time, I could even see it hitting in the $6 million range. My prediction is for $7.9 million, but really working against it is 1) Huge competition and 2) No one liked it (“C” CinemaScore). How does one even get a “C” from opening weekend audiences, short of punching them in the face? That’s amazing.
Finally, let us consider Saw. These re-releases are almost impossible to predict. Generally speaking, in an era of instant watching online, the appetite for seeing things again in theaters is low. See: Top Gun and Ghostbusters. Clearly, this is a special case, because nto only is it a tenth anniversary release, it’s also timed to a holiday. Because of that, I’m going to figure around a million people queue up to watch it all over again, for the first time. Editorial: I have no idea why anyone would want to watch a torture porn again. It was a weird moment in history when those types of films were winning weekends. My prediction is $7.8 million, but there’s so much room either way here that it’s scary (heyoooo) to throw out a number.
I turn it over to you, make it spooky out there!
Current Record: 51-98-5 against the wisdom of the crowds
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
