Fury has the best trailer of the group, and we know it’s all about marketing for opening weekend. Plus, you know, 79 percent on RT is the highest of the weekend. Is my $28.8 million call enough? It’s also winning the Fandango “most anticipated” award for the weekend. Brad Pitt? See, the evidence is all apparent for a Fury victory, the only drama left is just how high this one can reach.
The Best of Me will draw all the Nicholas Sparks fans, plus the occasional hapless date night. Safe Haven and The Lucky One both opened just north of $20 million, but I’m slightly less bullish on this title due to 1.) Star power and 2.) Time of year. It’s odd to say, but Julianne Hough and Zac Efron are slightly more credentialed and marketable within the key demo here than James Marsden. Although the film isn’t nearly as mindless as The Notebook it’s still not exactly brilliant either. My call is $18.2 million, but I could actually see some downward momentum here if you were looking to gamble.
The Book of Life is a children’s film that I haven’t seen one piece of marketing on. Perhaps Fox hasn’t blown out the budget? Or is my constant watching of the Disney Channel short-circuiting my ability to see any non-Pixar/Disney animation marketing? That’s a mystery for you. I haven’t seen a production budget yet, but if it’s anything above $60 million that means this is purely an international play. For the domestic market? $15.5 million is my take on the matter at hand.
Finally, Men, Women, and Children is getting “nationwide expansion”, though I’m not sure precisely what that means. I’ve pegged this at 1,000 theaters, and $6.5 million, but you’ll want to check the theater counts before you make your call. It’s done so-so numbers with very limited theater counts, but when you take a movie from 28 theaters to exponentially more the math gets pretty wacky. Buyer beware!
That’s all from party central, I leave it in your hands.
Current Record: 47-94-5 against the wisdom of the crowds
SIDE NOTE: Some of the theater numbers below are estimates. We’ll have the actual counts in Sunday’s wrap-up article.
